7 October 2022
The dramatic collapse in support for the Conservatives in the wake of the ‘fiscal event’ a fortnight ago raises an intriguing question – what has happened to the Brexit divide in Britain’s electoral politics? The key foundation underpinning Boris Johnson’s electoral success in 2019 was to persuade three-quarters of those who had voted Leave in […]
9 March 2022
Ever since the 2016 referendum, it has been commonplace for polls of vote intention to report separately the figures for those who voted Remain and those who backed Leave. And as we have previously shown, these analyses suggest that since 2019 there has been a narrowing of the difference between 2016 Remain and Leave voters […]
13 December 2021
Following yesterday’s second anniversary of the 2019 general election, today sees the launch of another book on that contest. This is a volume on ‘Political Communication’ in the election. It uniquely brings together the perspectives and insights of academics, pollsters, journalists and campaigners on the interplay during the course of the campaign between party strategy, […]
10 December 2021
One of the most dramatic developments during the campaign for the December 2019 general election, whose second anniversary is this weekend, was the decision announced by Nigel Farage on 11 November that the Brexit Party would not contest those seats being defended by the Conservatives. Instead it would concentrate its firepower on those seats currently […]
13 April 2021
On May 6, the parties face their first significant electoral test since the December 2019 general election. As well as devolved elections in Scotland and Wales (and a parliamentary by-election in Hartlepool), in England there will be a double round of local elections as the contests that were postponed last year because of the pandemic […]
2 October 2019
Often ignored and sometimes heavily criticised, the Fixed Terms Parliament Act has finally come into play. It stipulates that a General Election can only be held before the five-year term of a Parliament has concluded if either (i) the government is defeated in a vote of no confidence and no alternative administration can be formed, […]
27 February 2019
In what is by now becoming a familiar ritual, today MPs will once again vote on various proposals for how Brexit should be handled, while the government endeavours to secure itself more time to negotiate an amended deal with the EU. However, the backdrop against which today’s voting will take place is different from that […]
17 August 2018
Much excitement has been created this week by an analysis of YouGov polling data released by the anti-Brexit Best for Britain campaign and first reported by The Observer. Using a statistical technique (multi-level regression and post-stratification) that, inter alia, helped YouGov anticipate that the Conservatives would lose their overall majority in last year’s general election, […]
16 February 2017
Two by-elections next week in historically safe Labour seats are generating more than the usual level of interest for such contests. The principal opposition party rarely loses a seat it is defending in a by-election – it has only happened six times since 1979. Yet it is being seriously suggested that the Labour party could lose […]
7 November 2016
Or, Why the Remain Campaign Failed.
During the EU referendum, the centrepiece of the Remain campaign was that it was in the UK’s economic interest to continue to be a member of the European club …
