Not Whether to Vote But How To Vote – That is the Question

Posted on 2 October 2019 by John Curtice

Often ignored and sometimes heavily criticised, the Fixed Terms Parliament Act has finally come into play. It stipulates that a General Election can only be held before the five-year term of a Parliament has concluded if either (i) the government is defeated in a vote of no confidence and no alternative administration can be formed, or (ii) if two-thirds of MPs vote in favour of a dissolution. As a result of the Act, a Prime Minister can longer call a ballot at a time of his or her choosing. Rather, he or she needs the Leader of the Opposition to acquiesce in an early election – and while Jeremy Corbyn did precisely that when Mrs May proposed an election in 2017, this time around he has so far at least refused to do so.

That has led to criticism from the government that the opposition is intent on maintaining a ‘dead’ parliament that is incapable of making a decision about Brexit  – other than to block leaving without a deal – while being reluctant to be held to account by the voters. Holding an election, the government anticipates, would pave the way for the creation of a parliament that would back it in delivering Brexit. The opposition parties, however, are disinclined to allow an election to take place until the Commons has had the opportunity to vote – and potentially block –  whatever deal – or no deal – emerges from the European Council in the middle of October.

However, holding an election is not the only possible way of consulting the public with a view to ending the Brexit impasse. An alternative would be to hold a referendum in which whatever package for leaving the EU is proposed by the government is pitted against the alternative of remaining in the EU. Holding some such ballot is now the preferred stance of all the opposition parties (albeit as a second preference in the case of the Liberal Democrats) and also seems to be backed some by some of those former Conservative MPs who backed the anti-no deal legislation passed at the beginning of September and now find themselves denied the Conservative whip. The government, however, are opposed to holding such a referendum.

So, in truth, the debate about holding a vote on Brexit is not simply about whether or not a ballot should be held. Rather, it is a debate about what form any such ballot should take. It is, perhaps, not surprising that, given it enjoys a substantial lead in polls of election vote intentions, the pro-Brexit Conservative government thinks it could well win an election held under the single-member plurality system. On the other hand, given that on average the polls put Remain ahead of Leave by six points (as well as ahead of leaving without a deal), it is equally unsurprising that the predominantly anti-Brexit opposition parties think the future of Brexit should be decided via a referendum. The two forms of ballot could produce very difficult outcomes.

However, the debate about whether to hold an election or a referendum is not simply one between government and opposition. Which of them should be held first is a source of division within the opposition. Some are happy for an election to be called once the Commons has voted on the outcome of the negotiations between the UK and the EU – and paved the way for an extension of the Article 50 process if necessary. The SNP, well ahead in the polls and mindful of the forthcoming trial of their former leader, Alex Salmond, in the New Year, appear particularly keen for an election to be held as soon as possible and not delayed until after a referendum. In contrast, an early ballot would not seem to be in the interest of those former Conservative MPs who now face the difficult prospect of having to defend their seats as independents.

But where the debate appears to be particularly important is inside the Labour Party. Some, such as the Deputy Leader, Tom Watson, have suggested that a Brexit referendum should be held before any election. In contrast, others, including most notably the Leader, Jeremy Corbyn, appear minded to allow an election to be held first.  The former group are perhaps less sanguine than those in the latter camp about Labour’s prospects in an early general election.

This debate about the relative merits of holding a referendum or an election may now be beginning to be reflected in the pattern of public opinion. It has long been the case that most Leave voters, unlike their Remain counterparts, do not want the principle of Brexit to be reopened via a referendum. That stance has been confirmed by polling in the past month. For example, Deltapoll have reported that while 71% of Remain voters back ‘a second referendum on British membership of the European Union’, 75% of Leave voters oppose the idea. Similarly, while 75% of Remain voters told YouGov that they supported a public vote on Brexit, 72% of Leave supporters indicated they were opposed.

That said, polls that have asked voters during the last month whether there should be an early general election have found Remain and Leave voters, and Conservative and Labour supporters, to be largely at one in their level of support for the idea. For example, Survation found that Labour voters (64%) were just as favourable as Conservative voters (61%) to the idea of an early election, while Remain voters (66%) were only a little more supportive than backers of Leave (58%). Still, given that all parties are in favour of an election in principle, this lack of disagreement perhaps is not surprising.

Nevertheless, when the question of when an election should be held is introduced, a division does emerge. According to YouGov, 46% of Leave voters back holding a general election before October 31st, while only 23% favour one afterwards. Conversely, the equivalent figures among Remain supporters are 30% and 64% respectively. A similar pattern is found if we compare the views of Conservative and Labour voters.

However, it is not clear that Remain voters – and Labour supporters – are keen on an election at all. In a first attempt to ascertain whether voters would prefer a referendum or an election, YouGov have reported that voters as a whole were evenly divided between those who would prefer a referendum (32%) and those who would like to see a general election (31%). (In addition, 17% opted for a third option of forming a cross-party government.) However, whereas 53% of Leave voters would prefer a general election, 56% of Remain supporters favour a referendum. Similarly, while 66% of Conservative supporters prefer an election, 53% of Labour voters are keener on a referendum. In short, voters appear inclined to prefer whichever ballot the polls suggest would be more likely to produce a favourable outcome from their point of view.

The aim of Brexit is meant to be to implement the will of the people. Trouble is, there is seemingly little agreement about how their will should now be ascertained.

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By John Curtice

John Curtice is Senior Research Fellow at NatCen and at 'UK in a Changing Europe', Professor of Politics at Strathclyde University, and Chief Commentator on the What UK Thinks: EU website.

3 thoughts on “Not Whether to Vote But How To Vote – That is the Question

  1. I always worry about WHY a person ticked a particular box.

    There is a psychological issue here, or perhaps cultural, that for many people they feel they MUST vote, and then MUST make a positive vote – so vote FOR something.

    In a binary choice referendum it should be pretty clear, shouldn’t it? Certainly, the campaigners and vocal supporters say it is. “You voted for the yellow colour, so you must like ALL tones of yellow.”

    But that is not true. A voter, if quizzed, might say, “well, I actually prefer a dull yellow, almost an orange, but the only other colour I could vote for was pink, and I think I prefer yellow mostly today.”

    How does that work in elections?

    I have this thing about the “blank cheque” that is a manifesto. There are two problems here. Firstly, I suspect most people don’t read the manifestos in detail. And they may not realise that there could be a difference in emphasis between a local MP’s manifesto and the national Party’s manifesto.

    And then there is the assumption made by the party’s machine that if someone voted for them, they liked EVERYTHING in the manifesto and so that vote gives them the mandate for everything. In fact, someone might have liked 51% of what they read (assuming they did read it) and so are NOT giving permission for the other 49%. It is an all or nothing assumption, and the party plays on that assumption.

    We saw that in the European elections where the remain lobby said the majority of people voted for parties who support remain, therefore they MUST all support remain. Except, I know an SNP voter who is supportive of Brexit, but always votes SNP because they dislike the alternative. So in at least one case, this argument fails.

    Lastly, there is the importance of “Don’t know” made up of those who didn’t vote. I think that number should always be included.

    We don’t know WHY people don’t vote. The parties and campaigns love to say “this is just the lazy lot who can’t be bothered, so who cares?”

    This is a copout. There will be lots of reasons, including couldn’t get to the vote or, indeed, can’t be bothered. But there will also be a huge number of people who say, “I don’t like any of the choices,” or, “I just don’t know enough to make a decision.” In the Brexit referendum, this lot was probably the most honest! We didn’t know enough. Actually, we still don’t. We just have a pile of unproven opinions on both sides.

    When the “Don’t knows” or “Didn’t vote” become a sizeable number, say more than ten per cent, then trying to find out why they couldn’t make a choice becomes vital. If a large number of people honestly can’t make up their minds, then one has to question the validity of both the campaigns and the entire vote.

    On some surveys I have taken, they have asked me to choose using a slider between two things. This is interesting and I wonder if on the EU Ref that had been possible, what the result would have been. How many people would have been hovering around the middle 50-60% between Remain and Leave?

    Likewise, inn a general election, if you were asked how positive you felt for each of the choices on a scale of one to ten, rather than choose just one, how would that work out?

    You would still have to take into account blind loyalty of course – those people who would either ALWAYS vote for a particular tribe or dogma and those people who would “NEVER vote for them!”

    You see that with MPs too. MPs who would rather vote for something they hate than vote against their party. And parties that insist that voting like that is somehow good. Party before Country.

    When it comes to a Poll of Polls, surely all these issues become murkier or at least much harder to analyse. Do we have, for instance, statistics that show how the number of “don’t knows” have changed or not over time?

    Not only are polls dangerous, and poll of polls equally so (and you are always at pains to point this out, which many in the media are not), but in almost every voting system currently in use, it is arguable that the majority of people are not fairly reflected in their views by how they voted.

    A minefield!Report

  2. Even if a majority in the Commons might favour a second referendum, it’s very hard to imagine a ballot-paper-with-options that a majority of MPs would vote for. We know the trouble that unspecified-Leave has led to. Many MPs would object to Leave-with-no-deal vs Remain. Leave-with-May’s-deal vs Remain?? Leave-with-a-deal-to-be-negotiated-by-the-Govt vs Remain?? Of course one could have various Leave options, but how to specify them? And how to present them? And what method for determining the result?
    If the referendum were said explicitly to be consultative, would there be an uproar from Leavers of old?
    I sort of understand both why Corbyn wants an election first, and why Swinson thinks it now has to be revoke A 50. And I’d be interested to know what John Curtice envisages by way of a 2nd referendum ahead of an election.Report

  3. 2 reasons why a GE would be undemocratic in terms of Brexit:

    1) A GE is clearly not single issue.
    2) A GE can be won with a minority of voters (typically 40% of those who voted)

    Obviously Leavers don’t want a referendum, there’s literally no upside for them, even if they thought they would win it, which they wouldn’t.Report

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