Five Years On: Why Have Public Attitudes to Brexit Changed?

Posted on 31 January 2025 by John Curtice

The UK left the EU five years ago today. However, compared with the outcome of the referendum on Brexit in June 2016, the balance of public opinion now is different. This is confirmed by the latest poll by Redfield & Wilton for UK in a Changing Europe, conducted earlier this month. Leaving aside those who do not know how they would vote, 57% would now vote to rejoin the EU, while just 43% would back staying out. This result is very similar to both the average figure in other recent polls and with the picture for over two years.

There are two elements to this change in the balance of opinion. First, those who voted Leave in 2016 (67% in today’s poll) are rather less likely to say they would vote to stay out than Remain supporters are to state they would vote to rejoin (80%). Although most who participated in the referendum have not changed their minds, Leave voters are somewhat more likely to have done so.

Second, those who did not vote in 2016 are more likely to say they would vote to rejoin (54%) than they are to express support for staying out (24%), a pattern evident in every other recent poll. Some were, of course, too young to vote in 2016, and in today’s poll 60% of 18-24 year olds would vote to rejoin.

Why have some Leave voters changed their minds? And why do those who did not vote in 2016 express little support for staying out?

Some of the answers are to be found in the results Redfield & Wilton obtained when they asked their respondents about various possible impacts of Brexit. In each case they were asked, as appropriate, how things compare now with how they would have been if the UK had not left the EU. Table 1 shows the proportion who believe things are better thanks to Brexit minus those who believe they are worse. The figures are shown for all respondents and separately for those who voted Remain, Leave, or did not vote in 2016.

Unsurprisingly, Leave voters are generally less critical of Brexit than their Remain counterparts. However, Leave voters are more likely than Remainers to say that legal immigration has gone up as a result. Given that in 2016 many Leave voters anticipated that immigration would fall, this outcome might well have come as a particular disappointment to many of them.

At the same time, Leave voters share the widespread view that being outside the EU has exacerbated the cost of living crisis, while on balance they think that Brexit has been bad for the NHS and for the ability of British companies to sell goods abroad. The public policy challenges that have beset the country in the last few years have evidently helped cast a cloud over Brexit.

Meanwhile, with one notable exception – the Covid19 vaccination programme, one of the biggest public relations successes of the Johnson government – those who did not vote in 2016 are critical of Brexit across the board.

However, being critical of the consequences does not necessarily translate into a reluctance to vote for Brexit (again). Some consequences may matter more to voters than others. Table 2 indicates this is indeed the case.

What affects Leave voters’ continued willingness to back Brexit again is whether or not they think it has given Britain more control over its own affairs. Those who believe it has not (34%) are less than half as likely as those who believe that it has (78%) to back staying out. Perceptions of the Covid19 vaccination programme make a difference too. The fact that Leave voters evaluate Brexit most highly on these criteria (see Table 1) is a key reason why most continue to back Brexit.

Yet their doubts about the impact of Brexit on the NHS, the cost of living and, indeed, the economy more generally have taken their toll. Those who think the economy is worse because of Brexit (44%) are much less likely than those who do not share that view (75%) to say they back staying out. The many Leave voters who think Brexit worsened the cost of living crisis (54%) are noticeably less likely than the minority who do not share that view (74% of those who either thought it made no difference or that it helped lower prices). Meanwhile, nearly three-quarters (72%) of those who believe the NHS has not suffered from Brexit back staying out, compared with only just over half (53%) who believe it has.

In contrast, the many Leave voters who say that immigration is higher because of Brexit are not especially disloyal.  Just over three in five (61%) say they would back Brexit again, only a little below the equivalent figure (68%) among those who do not blame Brexit for higher immigration. While Leave voters may be disappointed with the level of immigration in recent years, it is not an issue that has shaken their faith in the Brexit project.

An equivalent analysis of the current preferences of those who did not vote in 2016 uncovers much the same story. Those who think the cost of living is higher because of Brexit (19%) are markedly less likely than those who do not hold that view (45%) to support staying out. Much the same is true of perceptions of the economy and the NHS. In contrast, the equivalent difference in the level of support for Brexit between those who think immigration has increased because of being outside the EU (27%) and those who do not (36%) is notably smaller.

Immigration once appeared to be the key fault line in the Brexit debate. But now, it seems, that is no longer the case.

This blog also appears on the UK in a Changing Europe website.

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By John Curtice

John Curtice is Senior Research Fellow at NatCen and at 'UK in a Changing Europe', Professor of Politics at Strathclyde University, and Chief Commentator on the What UK Thinks: EU website.

2 thoughts on “Five Years On: Why Have Public Attitudes to Brexit Changed?

  1. This is more remain nonsense, lies and spin. The sample number has not been published? So I assume this is 10-20 people. The findings are extremely biased, and probably funded by the eu. John Curtice Should respect democracy and the will of the British People.Report

  2. The truly most astonishing part of this story is that Brexit has become so unpopular even though neither the last nor the present government has dared to say what a bloody mess it has been. Even though most of the MSM is still addicted to Brexit, its readers no longer are. Brexit is the Emperor’s News ClothesReport

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