20 December 2016
One of the key points of speculation during the EU referendum campaign was what impact voter turnout might have on the outcome. Support for Remain was known to be higher amongst younger people, who generally tend to be less likely to vote, but also higher amongst graduates, who tend to be more likely to do […]
7 December 2016
Six months on from the EU Referendum, today we publish a new analysis paper that looks at the question ‘Who voted Leave and why?’. The paper uses new data from NatCen’s mixed mode random probability panel as well as the extensive evidence available in the British Election Study internet panel. The paper reveals that the […]
19 August 2016
The high drama of the post-referendum period has given way to the relative quiet of high summer, albeit that Labour finds itself using the supposed ‘silly season’ to debate for a second year in a row who should be its leader. But that, of course, does not mean that the questions raised by the vote […]
8 July 2016
Now that the UK has voted to leave the EU, it faces an important new question. What relationship, if any, would it like to have with the European Union in future – and what kind of relationship with the UK might the EU itself be willing contemplate? The options would appear to range from the […]
23 June 2016
Late yesterday and today have seen the inevitable last minute flurry of polls of voting intentions in the referendum. Polls have been released by six pollsters based in the UK, Opinium, TNS, ComRes, YouGov, Ipsos MORI and Populus, while there have also been a couple of polls from overseas pollsters, Survey Monkey (USA) and IBRIS […]
22 June 2016
We are now (obviously) in the final phase of the campaign – and thus into the period when, if it is going to happen, the process whereby voters switch back to the status quo (i.e. Remain) because of concern about the risks of change might now be expected to be in evidence. Indeed, the polls […]
20 June 2016
One of the marked features of polling during the referendum campaign has, of course, been the divergent findings of internet and phone polls. Most of the time, polls done via the internet have put Remain and Leave neck and neck while those undertaken by ringing people up on the phone have put Remain ahead. Inevitably […]
20 June 2016
It is often said that what goes down must come back up again. We thus perhaps should not be surprised that, after a sharp decline in support for Remain during the course of last week, four polls conducted over the weekend should have reported some recovery in its position. Even so, that will not stop […]
18 June 2016
On Thursday morning journalists and politicians were avidly discussing the apparent implications of two more opinion polls released within hours of each other. Yet no sooner had they begun to digest their results and the political world – and many ordinary citizens – were shocked by the murder of the Labour MP, Jo Cox, on […]
12 June 2016
Not for the first time in recent weeks, a poll has made waves amongst commentators and the markets. The latest example came from ORB in an internet poll that appeared in Saturday’s Independent. Its headline figures were Leave 55%, Remain 45%. Although the Leave tally in the poll was boosted by two points as a […]
