15 March 2016
One of the most important features of polling in the EU referendum to date has been a marked and consistent divergence between those polls conducted by phone and those undertaken via the internet. The former have consistently suggested that Remain are well ahead; across all phone polls conducted since the beginning of this year Remain […]
29 February 2016
One key message from the opinion polls in advance of the conclusion of David Cameron’s renegotiation of the UK’s terms of membership was that if the Prime Minister came back from Brussels with what he insisted was a good deal for Britain, then the public would swing in behind a Remain vote. YouGov, for example, […]
26 February 2016
The EU Referendum race is hotting up. Last Friday evening, over an ‘English dinner’ in Brussels, David Cameron secured what he considered to be a successful renegotiation of Britain’s terms of membership of the European Union. But subsequently there has been considerable political division on the issue within Tory ranks, with a number of senior […]
18 February 2016
Doubtless the Prime Minister will have had plenty to read on his journey to today’s vital European Council meeting in Brussels. Most of his reading material will, of course, have been about the stances of his fellow leaders on the outstanding issues in the renegotiation and how their concerns might be met. But maybe also […]
5 February 2016
Fine as far as it goes – but it does not go far enough. That seems to be the message from voters on the draft deal that Mr Cameron has negotiated with Donald Tusk, President of the European Council – at least if a poll from YouGov for today’s Times, the first to be conducted since the […]
28 January 2016
What are the issues that matter most to voters in the EU referendum campaign? This kind of question is often addressed in opinion polls by asking people directly which are the issues that matter most to them in whatever vote is about to take place. However, approaching the question this way assumes that voters are […]
17 January 2016
One of the points of contention between the two sides of the EU referendum debate is whether a vote to leave the UK would potentially constitute a threat to the future of the Union. The former Conservative leader, Lord Hague, was accused by those in the Leave camp of peddling a scare story when over […]
22 December 2015
The public has become acutely aware of changes in immigration rates and attributes these changes to the UK’s membership of the European Union. This has been a direct consequence of the growth of immigration from the EU accession countries in Eastern and Central Europe. Inevitably, this process has important implications for the likelihood of a […]
16 December 2015
The uncertainty surrounding just how close the referendum race really is has grown today with the publication of two further polls of referendum vote intention, one from ComRes for the Open Europe think tank, the other from Ipsos MORI for the Evening Standard. In contrast to the picture of a very tight race painted by […]
16 December 2015
Two polls released yesterday helped create a flurry of excitement in advance of this week’s meeting of the European Council at which, we are promised, the renegotiation of Britain’s terms of membership will be on the agenda. One, from Survation, suggested that Leave were narrowly ahead (by 51% to 49%), while the other, from ICM, […]
