We are now (obviously) in the final phase of the campaign – and thus into the period when, if it is going to happen, the process whereby voters switch back to the status quo (i.e. Remain) because of concern about the risks of change might now be expected to be in evidence. Indeed, the polls published at the weekend that showed some recovery in Remain’s position after a set of poor polls (from their perspective) last week, could be interpreted as providing such evidence. The latest polls, however, do not.
All in all, since the weekend three new polls have been published in full, one each from ORB, Survation and YouGov, while a further poll from Survey Monkey has also been reported but no technical details seemingly been made available (which means at present at least the figures for this poll are not reported elsewhere on this site). (Survey Monkey are not members of the British Polling Council and are thus not subject to its rules on transparency; this is not the first instance of a US-based pollster reporting findings about the UK’s referendum without publishing any technical details, even when they have been requested.) Three of these polls were conducted after the tragic murder of Jo Cox, while in the fourth case (ORB) interviewing took place both before and after. In two cases (Survation and YouGov) their latest reading is the second poll that they have conducted since that sad event.
If voters are now swinging back to Remain in the final days of the campaign, we might expect some of these polls at least to be showing an increase in support for Remain. In practice none of them do so. YouGov’s latest offering, conducted between Friday and Sunday, puts Remain on 49%, Leave on 51% (after Don’t Knows are excluded); that represents a two point swing to Leave since the company’s previous poll, conducted on Thursday and Friday. Survation, in a poll conducted on Monday, put Remain and Leave neck and neck on 50% each (again after Don’t Knows are excluded); this also represents a two-point swing to Leave since their previous poll conducted on Friday and Saturday. In short both the companies that were polling for a second time since the murder of Jo Cox have reported a slight swing back to Leave.
Meanwhile, Survey Monkey, in a poll was apparently conducted between Friday and Monday, put Leave one point ahead (by 49% to 48% with Don’t Knows not excluded), after having put the two sides neck and neck in a previous poll undertaken in the week ending last Wednesday.
The final poll in the quartet, from ORB, might in contrast be thought to be providing evidence of a swing to Remain, albeit that much of its fieldwork is relatively old. Its headline figure was Remain 54%, Leave 46%, representing a one point swing to Remain as compared with the headline figure in the company’s previous poll. However, this apparent swing to Remain is the product, firstly, of a decision by the company to take as its headline figure for this final poll the responses of just those who said they were certain to vote together, and, secondly, of an unusual pattern (not only for ORB, but also for nearly every other poll conducted during the referendum campaign) whereby those who said they were going to vote to Remain were more likely to say they were certain to vote. (ORB also assumed that those who said they did not know how they would vote would break three to one in favour of Remain, though this imputation only seems to have involved nine respondents.) If this poll had been headlined in the same way as previous ORB polls had been (at least by the company itself), the figures would have been (after Don’t Knows are excluded) Remain 52%, Leave 48%, or a one-point swing to Leave.
Now, of course, in all four cases the reported swing to Leave is small, just one or two points, and could well simply have been occasioned by the chance variation to which all polls are subject. We certainly cannot presume that any such movement to Leave has actually occurred. However, what is clear is that there is no evidence at all, in these four polls at least, that a gradual, continuous swing back to Remain is now taking place as voters weight up the relative risks of the two options before them. All that they do suggest – as did the weekend’s polls – is that the position of the Remain side may not be quite as weak as it appeared to be at one stage last week.
Not that the Leave campaign has been particularly effective at persuading people that exiting the EU would not be a risk. YouGov report that 53% now think that leaving would be risky, more than have done so on any previous occasion that the question has been asked, while only 34% believe it would be safe. Meanwhile, ORB report that 56% associated the phrase ‘is a risk’ with the Leave campaign, while only 27% regard the Remain campaign in the same way, figures little different from those the company has reported before. So the potential for a swing back amongst voters who are concerned about risk may well be there – so far, however it is not clear that it is actually being realised.
Consequently, the referendum still looks very tight. On average the last six internet polls (excluding Survey Monkey) have put Remain on 49%, Leave on 51%, while the last six phone polls reckon that Remain are on 51%, Leave on 49%. The difference between the two kinds of poll is now seemingly much narrower than it has been for most of the campaign, a convergence that seems to have consisted primarily of phone polls moving closer to the estimates provided by those conducted over the internet. Meanwhile, if as NatCen’s research suggests might be the case, the eventual result could well fall somewhere in between the estimates of the two kinds of polling then we cannot be sure which side is ahead. There seemingly really is everything to play for in the last 24 hours.
By John Curtice
John Curtice is Senior Research Fellow at NatCen and at 'UK in a Changing Europe', Professor of Politics at Strathclyde University, and Chief Commentator on the What UK Thinks: EU website.
I am not sure to what extent the expected last minute ‘fall back to status quo’ effect is relevant to the particular arguments in this referendum. In the Scottish vote the status quo position of remaining with the Union was unlikely to change in the future, and indeed would manifestly be improved by Westminster promises of more devolved powers and other assorted last minute ‘bribes’.
In the EU debate a central plank of the Leave argument is that there is no remain status quo, the EU political project will continue to gain speed in defence of the Euro, the semi-detached UK will increasingly find itself sidelined. The EU bureaucracy and democratic deficit is not seen as a positive even amongst ‘remainers’.
A key driver in the poll swing to Leave appears to be the immigration debate, again the status quo is clear and unattractive to the majority, more unlimited uncontrolled immigration. With regard to the economy the polls moved towards Leave after Cameron and Osborne and their collective expert witnesses had fired their dire economic warnings. Much of the vote Leave impetus, certainly in the north is precisely because they are unhappy now with the status quo.
Furthermore to many older voters ‘the status quo’ is Britain before the EU.
It may well be decided by the split of the don’t knows if they bother to vote.Report
The single and most forceful impression I see from all the support being given to the remain campaign by influential parties from within Europe is the sheer desperation to bolster the ongoing existence of the EU administration in Brussels.
It seems to me that the EU with its administrative function through Brussels is fatally flawed and if by chance the UK comes out, it is destined for complete failure. Even if the UK remains in the EU it seems to me that the EU has overstretched itself by the ambitions within Brussels. The constituent countries do not seem capable of providing a consistent policy of development because of their substantial differences that exist. The imposition of the Euro currency is unworkable as the cost of the Greek situation has exposed and is just the forbearer of like situations arising in other countries.
The immigrant/migrant situation is a further massive issue which carries with it real terrorist risks. How this can be contained is difficult to imagine. An ‘Open door’ policy seems miles away from a working reality to provide any opportunity for control?
The basic truth seems to be that it will take years, decades, maybe even centuries for the balance of affairs existing between countries to enable an effective administration to handle all the issues. Europe has shown that it simply does not have the means or collective conviction to continue with its current form of undemocratic administration and I fear that its continuation is perhaps the greatest risk to violence breaking out.Report
Why isn’t the latest Survey Monkey poll incorporated into the poll of polls? Earlier polls by that firm were included.
http://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20160622006011/en/Remain-Jumps-Lead-Eve-EU-Referendum
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Support for Brexit is underestimated but only by one or two points. I think the problem is pollster poll too much in cities and not enough in the rural areas. Report
I’ve always thought that Cameron would win the referendum simply because London,Birmingham voters will be largely pro EU then there’s Scotland were a recent poll had 76% pro EU same for Northern Ireland and maybe even Wales are more pro EU,and then the Jo Cox incident,which will motivate the Labour party to get out and vote,and last but not least the almost 2 million foreign voters from the other 52 Commonwealth nations who are living and working in the UK,who are also entitled to vote.So I predict the result will be similar to the 1975 one mid 60’s% to mid 30’s%,not long to wait when all will be revealed.Report
Did you make a mistake below? ” this also represents a two-point swing to Remain ” but the previous poll you quote had a 2 point swing to Leave not remain.
“In practice none of them do so. YouGov’s latest offering, conducted between Friday and Sunday, puts Remain on 49%, Leave on 51% (after Don’t Knows are excluded); that represents a two point swing to Leave since the company’s previous poll, conducted on Thursday and Friday. Survation, in a poll conducted on Monday, put Remain and Leave neck and neck on 50% each (again after Don’t Knows are excluded); this also represents a two-point swing to Remain since their previous poll conducted on Friday and Saturday. In short both the companies that were polling for a second time since the murder of Jo Cox have reported a slight swing back to Leave.”Report
Hi Malcolm, many thanks for your comment – the text has now been amendedReport
Yes agreed. As did many other polls.
http://centaur.reading.ac.uk/38059/1/Renwick%2C%20%27Don%27t%20Trust%20Your%20Poll%20Lead%27%2C%20in%20Cowley%20and%20Ford%20%282014%29.pdfReport
In the Scottish independence referndum the apparent swing to the status quo occurred only on polling day itself. Immediately before the vote, which was 55% for NO, polls averaged 52% NO. Hence there was an apparent swing of 3% to the status quo on polling day itself. I can empathise with this. I still haven’t made up my mind about EU and may well not do so until my pencil is hovering over the ballot paper.
Just a minute, I’ll try tossing a coin … heads leave, tails remain … here we go. As the coin falls, I find myself wishing for tails, so that is how I shall vote.
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