Perhaps one of the most frustrating aspects of being a politician is that you can fire what you think is some of your most powerful electoral ammunition – only to discover a few days later that, for all the media buzz and excitement you have generated, voters have seemingly been wholly unmoved.
The Remain campaign certainly assembled its firepower last week. The Chancellor of the Exchequer, George Osborne, unveiled a lengthy tome whose headline was that we would all be £4,300 a year worse off if we left the EU. Then, the President of the United States, Barak Obama weighed in, advising that Britain would be ‘at the back of the queue’ in any attempt to negotiate a trade deal from outside the EU. We were told by breathless journalists that the Remain camp now had momentum.
Not, it seems, according to the voters. None of the four polls published this week, all of which were taken either while President Obama was in London or soon after, uncovered a swing in favour of Remain. Rather, all four suggested there had been a swing of one to two points in the opposite direction as compared with the last time they had been conducted, which in all but one instance had been just a week to ten days previously.
Not that we should necessarily conclude that the interventions by George Osborne and Barack Obama backfired, although it is true that polling suggested that voters were inclined to the view that the US President should not have got involved in Britain’s European debate. As we recorded in our last blog, the polls that were unveiled last week (but conducted largely before the Chancellor and the President had attempted to apply their persuasive powers) had all, quite remarkably, shown a small swing to Remain. All that may have happened now is that the balance of opinion – if indeed it had ever really changed at all – has swung back to the equilibrium point on which it has been seemingly been resting for more months, and perhaps may have done so even if neither Mr Osborne nor President Osborne had uttered a word.
Certainly at Leave 51%, Remain 49% (after Don’t Knows are left aside) this week’s two internet polls (from ICM and YouGov) more or less simply replicated the even split that has persistently been in evidence in internet polls. Meanwhile, at 54% and 55% for Remain (46% and 45% for Leave), the week’s two phone polls (from Survation and ORB) were close to the average figure of 55% for Remain (and 45% for Leave) in recent phone polls.
In short, we still await a decisive movement in the balance of opinion in either direction. Not that the public have necessarily been wholly unmoved by the campaigning so far. As YouGov themselves noted, voters have become increasingly inclined to accept the Remain camp’s key argument that Britain’s economy would be worse off if we left the EU. Perhaps this an advance sign of a public that can eventually be expected to swing in Remain’s direction?
Not necessarily. For what YouGov’s latest polling revealed at the same time is that voters are also becoming increasingly convinced that immigration would be lower if Britain left the EU. In other words, what many regard as the Leave campaign’s most powerful argument is coming to be more popular too. At the same time, when YouGov asked their respondents which mattered to them more, free trade or control of immigration, they divided more or less evenly down the middle.
Progress by Remain in persuading voters of its key argument has, it seems, simply been matched by equivalent progress by Leave in respect of one of its major claims. Little wonder this referendum campaign is beginning to like a stalemate.
By John Curtice
John Curtice is Senior Research Fellow at NatCen and at 'UK in a Changing Europe', Professor of Politics at Strathclyde University, and Chief Commentator on the What UK Thinks: EU website.
So Cameron says that Brexit will increase the risk of war. Oddly, though, Sterling is up. Maybe that is because traditionally, Sterling is the only European currency that survives a war and comes out the other side in one piece.
And Gold is down. Twenty Dollars an ounce, in fact. Maybe that is because all the wise people who buy Gold when war approaches have done their buying already.
And I see no Gas Masks in Tesco. I guess last week’s panic buying of Gas Masks cleaned them out. If you need me, I will be hiding in the basement till the all-clear sounds.
Report
The NCpolitics.uk website publishes a polling average which adjusts for house effects such as the differences between internet and telephone based polls. The poll of polls on this website does not.
see http://www.ncpolitics.uk/2016/03/new-polls-apart.html/
Also see the response to Professor Curtice’s comments:
http://www.ncpolitics.uk/2016/04/matt-singh-responds-debate-around-polls-apart.html/Report
I often try to look at the overall shape of things.. Not just what this and that person’s opinion is, but the outline of what is going on.
What I see in the headlines today is that the Japanese PM Abe has contributed his opinion that the UK would be a “less attractive” place for Japanese investment after Brexit.
To me, this is the “drip feed” of foreign statesmen who step up to support Cameron. One day it’s Obama, the next day it’s Abe. This, by the way, is the Abe whose own nation, Japan, has GDP that has not grow net since 1992. That’s over two lost decades. Clearly Abe is a guy to listen to. I wonder who will step up tomorrow.
Oh, and the umpteenth Scottish MP has announced that after Brexit Scotland would have a second independence referendum.
The numbers published about Sotland yesterday indicates that it has been growing much more slowly than the rest of the UK, with higher unemployment, and a higher fiscal deficit, even though the Government spends L1400 more per head in Scotland than in England, indicating the scale of fiscal subsidy Scotland would lose. Clearly a country in fine shape for independence, as no doubt we will be hearing, day after day.
And here we are, despite best efforts, with the poll of pols still at 50/50. That’s an interesting overall shape to things.Report
Professor Curtice,
In your comment, you observe a meaningful variance in the results between interent based polls and those conducted by telephone. Telephone polls have been fairly consistent since before February whereas there has been a much greater tightening between the Leave and Remain sides Would you care to comment on which form of polling has been the more reliable indicator of the outcome based on past election and referendum results?Report
Frances Peter, very much agree. A break up of the EU would suit many in eastern europe too. There are many old scores still to be settled out there. The Balkan wars of the 90s are only a rifle’s length away to this day. Unfortunately we hear little about that area nowadays but to readers, please remember the Srebrenica massacre, the worst occurrence of its kind since the 2ndWW.Report
“please remember the Srebrenica massacre, the worst occurrence of its kind since the 2ndWW.”.
Yes, truly tragic events. But what do they have to do with the EU? Are we suggesting that the EU resolved the situation?Report
No, I’m not suggesting anything of the sort. What I am suggesting is something far more serious. Read that link again – this time slowly – and you will understand. Here’s a tip, “you can’t know where you’re going unless you understand where you’ve been”
Reference: The link is at 3rd May 823pm.
You may then understand why a Brexit risks so much to Britain.Report
So your answer is the same. When I ask why the EU is so complicated, you reply that it isn’t and the proof is to be found in a comprehensive fifty year history of the EU that is “heavy reading”.
I am not convinced that you understand either the question I am asking, or your own “answer” to it.
When we vote in the UK’s local elections tomorrow, we will not have to read a history book to know how to do it.Report
One thing that has I think cropped up as as to the possible effects of any “Brexit” relates to its possible effects on some of our friends in Western Europe. Some in the UK leave camp give the impression that if Britain leaves the EU, this might lead to some politicians demanding a similar referendum on EU membership in their countries. If France, for example, opted to leave the EU, as it is a founder member state , the result could be to procure the disorderly break-up the EU as a whole. If that were to happen all of us lucky enough to live here in Western Europe might rue the day, as Europe presumably reverted to the sort of “arrangements” which prevailed in the inter-war period. So – be careful what you ask for!Report
“…as Europe presumably reverted to the sort of “arrangements” which prevailed in the inter-war period.”
You appear here to be suggesting that a Europe of nation states without the EU would be unstable, or liable to war. In fact, war broke out three times in the 19th century and twice in the twentieth because of German aggression.
So if we had the same stream of events – Germany falling under the rule of an aggressive regime, arming itself and attacking its neighbours – then what exactly could the EU do about it?
I keep hearing about the EU “keeping the peace”. It has kept the peace in a Europe effectively under US supervision. If that supervision went away, what could the UE do?
I think that without the US in Europe, the EU would be about as effective at keeping the peace as the League of Nations was.Report
Worse that that Jon. I think he is suggesting that we should sacrifice our sovereignty and the hard won freedoms won in blood and treasure on the table of keeping the rest of Europe from going off their heads. Would that not have been just as powerful an argument in 1940? After all if we surrendered absolutely to Hitler at that point we would have prevented the worse excesses of the second world war.
I’m not suggesting that the EU is of any moral or political equivalence to that odious little man but neither can we ever take our freedoms and liberties for granted and neither should we ever be asked by either our own elites or the world at large to do so.Report
Here is absolutely everything you ever wanted to know about the EU. It`s not complicated, just heavy reading for those not entirely familiar with Europe. Enjoy !
http://europa.eu/about-eu/eu-history/index_en.htm
My apologies, I posted you the wrong link first time.Report