Today marks the third anniversary of the EU referendum in which the country voted narrowly (by 52% to 48%) in favour of leaving the EU. Since then, the country has spent much of the last three years debating how the process of leaving has and should be handled, the terms on which we should aim to leave, and even the merits of the original decision itself. The debate has precipitated a general election and resulted in the downfall of a Prime Minister. The one thing that has not happened is Britain making its exit from the EU – thanks to the repeated refusal of the House of Commons to accept the terms of the withdrawal treaty that was negotiated with the EU by the UK government. Instead the country is awaiting the arrival of a new Prime Minister who will be charged with the task of solving in three months a Brexit riddle that Theresa May was unable to solve in three years.
One might imagine that the difficulties that have beset the withdrawal process would have had an impact on support for the principle of remaining or leaving the EU in the first place. But of that there is remarkably little evidence. Our poll of polls of how people would vote in another referendum continues to report that the country is more or less evenly divided between Remain and Leave, much as it was three years ago.
True, as has been the position ever since our poll of polls series began at the beginning of 2018, the balance of support is now tilted in favour of Remain rather than, as in the referendum, in favour of Leave. Indeed, the current average of Remain 52%, Leave 48% is the exact mirror image of what emerged from the ballot boxes in June 2016.
However, this does not mean that there is a discernible, key group of Leave voters who have changed their minds about Brexit. That much becomes clear if, as in the table below, we examine separately the current vote intentions of those who voted Remain in 2016 and those who backed Leave. In both cases over 85% say they would vote exactly the same way as they did in 2016. The sound and fury of the last three years has left the vast majority of voters unmoved. And although 8% of those who backed Leave say that they would now vote Remain, they are counterbalanced by 8% of Remain supporters who indicate that they would now support Leave.
The principal reason why public opinion is now tilted towards Remain is because, as we have noted before, those who did not vote three years ago prefer Remain to Leave by around two to one (if they express a view at all). In part, at least, this reflects the fact that this group of abstainers consists disproportionately of younger voters who in general are more likely to back Remain. However, it also suggests that, far from being certain to produce a majority for Remain, the outcome of a second referendum could turn on the ability or otherwise of the Remain side to mobilise the support of a group of voters who cannot necessarily be relied upon to vote at all.
Meanwhile, we should note that, in so far as there has been any change in recent weeks, it consists of a slight narrowing of the lead for Remain. The latest figures of Remain 52%, Leave 48%, contrast with ones of Remain 54%, Leave 46%, that had hitherto pertained for most of the time since the beginning of this year. Still, this movement could be the product of chance variation or the possibility that more recent polls have been undertaken disproportionately by companies that tend to produce relatively narrow leads for Remain anyway.
However, this seems to be an inadequate explanation. Of the four companies that have polled vote intentions in a second referendum since the beginning of May and who also did so in January this year, three (BMG, Survation and YouGov) have registered clear drops in support for Remain, on average by three points, while only one (Kantar) has not.
The principal explanation for this change appears to be that there has been some ‘hardening’ of the Leave vote in recent weeks. At the beginning of the year we reported that while 89% of those who voted Remain said that they would vote the same way again, the equivalent figure among Leave supporters, 83%, had become somewhat lower. Now the two figures are almost identical. Recent events have, it seems, simply reinforced Leave voters in their original views rather than encouraged them to think again.
By John Curtice
John Curtice is Senior Research Fellow at NatCen and at 'UK in a Changing Europe', Professor of Politics at Strathclyde University, and Chief Commentator on the What UK Thinks: EU website.
I am a remainer allways have been allways will be i will not change my mind,we were all happy sharing business visiting new places enjoying sunshine enjoying skiing every body was happy there not now let’s get back to our European friends and enjoy our lives again xReport
It is difficult to see that those who voted for Brexit will get what they wanted, whether in reductions in immigration, perceived freedom to do as they please, or a better standard of living. Rather than simply blaming them, however, it behoves those of us who believe that we have benefited from our EU membership up to now to understand those who believe the opposite. How did they get left behind and disaffected to the extent that they believe all the lies that were peddled in the press and on buses? Why could the pro EU camp think of nothing better than project fear to counter the lies? We are all involved in those issues. Whatever the new normal holds we have to bring our nation together and share its wealth more evenly and, yes, we may end up going back to the EU and getting a worse deal than the first time round (except perhaps on fishing).Report
Many thanks for giving us unbiased polling figures regarding peoples voting intensions on Brexit. Yes it has clearly shown that we are still as a nation divided on the issue of leaving the EU. However I think once we have left the EU on Jan 2021 and especially on a no deal Brexit, the full economic and social disconnect that will befall most people who voted to leave will be stark and obvious. The honeymoon period of the last four + years when we enjoyed being in the customs union and single market with all the relevant advantages will be gone. Reality meets the nonsensical Brexit supporters and with each passing month support ebbs away until support for Brexit becomes an irrelevance and then the realization of being outside no longer looks attractive. The tables will be turned and the humiliation of the UK asking the EU to give us a deal which basically means surrender to the French and Germans in the eyes of the Conservatives will be the final act of our nations justified humiliation. Report
Except Scotland let them have there independence and we will see how that works for them 🤣Report
Really didn’t seem a divided country by the result ,so all your silly comments just go to show you when people ask for something to be done , they will vote again if they have too so it happens which it has Goodbye EU Good riddance Report
Sorry I meant to say “as a remainer”. Blame apple auto correct which is clearly not tuned in to current politics.Report
“Doing what the people voted for” Remember Nora it was a very slim majority. Nevertheless, as a remainder, I accept that means that Brexit is the next step. Unfortunately what has jammed up the process is indecision about what Brexit means. Indeed we have had the spectacle of those who say they want Brexit refusing to vote for a Brexit deal. Also remember that this is not just for 4 or 8 years but for ever. Yes we could join again but not on terms as advantageous as we have at present. Get it wrong and we could see the break up of the United Kingdom. Most unfortunately for those who voted leave, I don’t believe that they will get out of Brexit any of the things that they hope for such as sovereignty and reduced immigration.Report
As an American, I am watching with interest but no dog in this fight. What I see, similar to what we have ad here, is that the left there is jumping through flaming hoops to try to avoid doing what the people voted for. I can’t understand how this can be defended in a democracy. You don’t just keep having votes until you get your way. VERY undemocratic. Then they try to say the people were duped. That is a risk in every election, and every side uses that arrogant statement that the people didn’t understand what they were voting for. We have Donald Trump and the leftists here have NOT learned their lesson about trying to force their views down middle America’s throat. If they don’t stop, we will get another 4 ruinous years of him. Report
Now it’s looking like Brexit may well go through with a slight extension of the deadline, we still have to face the decision of what kind of future trade deal we want. This has been, after all, a major cause of the delays in enacting a withdrawal agreement. Such delays have been down to leavers as much as remainders.
With hindsight it would have made sense, immediately after the result on 23 June 2016, to ask everyone what kind of Brexit we want. This could still be done in a multiple choice referendum to establish the “will of the people” for a future trade deal. Such a poll would choose between a range of options, from Norway to no deal, achieving a majority answer by STV.Report
John Curtice holds a high position, but he is consistently biased against remain.Report
The only way to overturn the decision to leave should be if 60% of voters go for it anything like the previous referendum will only split the country more.
I would not accept a 52-48% vote as the previous vote has not been accepted by the remoaners who have no right to shout about democracy when they ignore the previous voteReport
Dave — I remember at the time of the 2016 referendum Farage saying that 52:48 in favour of Remain he would fight. The hypocrite was quite happy when it turned out the other way round.
In fact what should have happened with such a close margin, particularly since most of us thought the referendum was supposed to be ‘advisary’, is that the pros and cons should have been hammered out in committee before Article 50 was even considered, and certainly not a mob insistence that “Brexit woz the democratic decision, Brexit is Brexit, end of!”Report