The local and devolved elections on May 5th have come and gone, and so (apart from a by-election for Sadiq Khan’s former parliamentary seat of Tooting on June 16th) the political world can focus its mind exclusively on the EU referendum.
Not that polls of voting intentions in the EU referendum stopped appearing in the run up to the elections. Five Britain-wide polls of EU vote intentions were published in the days immediately before May 5th, while another two appeared not long after the counting of the election ballots was completed.
All of these polls shared one crucial characteristic. They were all done over the internet, and, as regular readers will be well aware, polls done that way have long painted a more optimistic picture for the Leave side than have those done over the phone. Indeed, once Don’t Knows were set aside, this latest clutch of polls on average put Leave neck and neck with Remain on 50% each (and these are currently the figures in our poll of polls). None of these polls have identified anything more than a two point swing in either direction as compared with when they were previously conducted, and a swing of that size can simply a consequence of the chance variation to which all polls are subject. Thus it is not surprising to discover that the average figures in these polls of Remain 50%, Leave 50% are exactly in line with the average for all internet polls conducted this year.
Most of these recent polls contained few if any additional questions, and those that they did carry uncovered little that was new. Immigration emerged as still the key issue for the Leave campaign, while the economy continues to be the main foundation underpinning support for Remain, a dichotomy that helps to explain the continuing stalemate.
Thus, for example, ICM in a poll for the Sun on Sunday found that while 74% of Leave voters regard immigration as one of the two or three most important issues in the campaign, only 18% of Remain supporters take that view. Conversely, the same poll reported that 57% of Remain supporters regard the economy as one of the key issues, compared with just 16% of Leave backers.
Equally, Ipsos MORI (in an online poll for Unbound Philanthropy in which the balance of support for Remain and Leave was not explicitly reported, but which appears to be 52% for Remain and 48% for Leave) found that 66% believe the number of EU immigrants coming to the UK would decrease if we left the EU, while only 9% feel that it will increase. Meanwhile, Opinium (for The Observer) found that 38% believe the economy would better if Britain remains in the EU, while only 29% reckon it would be better if we left.
Thus the crucial question is whether either side can break this apparent stalemate now that the campaign enters its most intense phase – and, of course, which set of polls, those conducted by phone or those conducted over the internet, is the more accurate. On the latter issue, it is perhaps worth noting that none of the polls conducted reasonably close to polling day in either London or in Wales, all of which were conducted via the internet, managed to underestimate UKIP support. (In Scotland, at 2%, UKIP’s support was so low it was almost impossible to underestimate.) That may well be regarded by the advocates of phone polling, such as Danny Finkelstein in The Times, as evidence that those polls done via the internet are also overestimating support for Leave. But then no company put a phone poll to the same tough test on May 5th.
By John Curtice
John Curtice is Senior Research Fellow at NatCen and at 'UK in a Changing Europe', Professor of Politics at Strathclyde University, and Chief Commentator on the What UK Thinks: EU website.
Here’s the full version of BREXIT the movie – must watch – will certainly open your eye’s to things you did not know.
4 presidents of the EU?
70% of all EU MP’s earn more than David Cameron?
Take a look – just over an hour – https://vimeo.com/166389884Report
britons will be free ! in the eu we are slaves all our industry has gone we cannot even build trains any more soon the car industry will be gone what are we left with potholes in our roads an nhs service which is only good for dying. politicians with no guts eu does not listen to people it is the unelected 95% non british who govern us crime rising drugs all over the place police whose hands are tied courts hampered with human right issues so criminals benefit while victims are not helped but are afraid is this what you want where is the land of the free . balance of payment negative and yet we have to hand over 100 million a week to support all sort of scroungers that eu supports britons never never will be slaves except in the eu we are freedom from stupid rules which are strangling britain criminals come into here time and again when turkey is let in you will have a flood of all sort of immigrants and youll have to pay 3 billion to turkey blackmail leave please or your children will have no chanceReport
The change in the poll of poll numbers this morning is quite striking. I wonder what has changed. Is it possible that people are actually listening to Lagarde and Co?Report
What has changed is that 3 of the last 6 polls have been telephone based polls which have consistently shown Remain in the lead by a much wider margin. The other 3 internet polls, showed a much smaller margin with Leave leading by 3 points in 2 of them and Remain leading by 4 points in the other. Of the 6 polls that preceded the 6 most recent polls, all were internet based. Those internet based shows showed the same smaller margin with Leave leading in 3 of them and Remain 2 in of them, in each case never more than by a 3 point margin. The Poll of Polls on What UK Thinks takes an average of the 6 most recent polls. Given the increase in telephone polls, the increase in Remain support was predictable and may not reflect a change in opinion arising from new information. The average of undecided for each of these two sets of polls didn’t change meaningfully.Report
Great, thanks. I think that sheds some light on it.Report
I really do wish that the Leave campaign would hit SOVEREIGNTY. That is the absolute nub of the matter and the remainers have no answer to make.
Do we wish to abandon our system of Common Law forever and continue this slide to the Continental Roman model. Under Common Law, you can do anything unless the law forbids it. Under Roman law you can do nothing unless the law ALLOWS it. Anything not covered by the law is therefore illegal.
It is THIS that makes the shipload of legislation keep pouring out of Brussels; they know no other way than to drip. drip. drip until we drown in it.
Roman law is not the British (English) way. PLEASE get stuck – in, Leavers.
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Yes, and in addition, I think that developing a political and economic mono-culture for all of Europe just seems like a bad idea. During the Thirties, the European countries led one another out of Depression by trying out different solutions. The UK, for example, was the first country to leave the Gold Standard, was then the first to begin to recover economically, and over time that led the others to do the same thing. The Thirties ended in war, but the start of the Thirties was a real competition to see who could find ways to solve depression and unemployment.
The euro area model, where money is created and short-term interest rates set centrally, and where no individual country can do its own QE, has no such competitive mechanism. Right now, even with unemployment above ten percent since 2009, Schauble is denouncing the QE that the ECB is doing, saying it is harming German savers, and blaming the ECB for the emergence of populist parties in Germany.
If Germany had its own currency, it could manage it to be as strong as they wanted. Meanwhile, countries that needed stimulus could do as much QE as they liked, and we could all see the outcomes. But only, of course, if they went back to national currencies.
If everyone in the euro area follows the same policies and they are wrong, it is extremely difficult to turn the ship around.Report
The disparity in findings between online and phone polling on the EU referendum continues apace. In a second mode test conducted by ICM on May 15, with exactly the same questions and exactly the same weighting adjustments being applied to both sets of data, a differing picture; indeed, a differing referendum outcome emerges.
Phone Online
Remain In 47% 43%
Leave 39% 47%
DK 14% 10%Report
I have just been catching up with the comments having made comments earlier, and tried very hard not to give my voting intentions away, but is it me or do most of the comments come from brexiters, myself included. If this reflects the outcome then we have left the EUReport
Does anyone know what would happen if, after endless recounts, the result was actually a dead-heat? Obviously that is very very very unlikely, but not absolutely impossible. I believe that if two candidates poll the same number of votes in a parliamentary election, there is a coin-toss to settle the matter. Is it theoretically just possible that the country’s future could be decided by the toss of a coin?!Report
If it is, I want to inspect the coin ahead of time.Report
I voted for the common market, not this unified Europe with an open door policy and an dictating bureaucracy. Report
Sandra,
How did you vote in the 1975 UK EEC referendum?Report
Now in my 74th year, I pride myself I have never missed voting in a UK election. Sometimes my party of choice won and formed a government, sometimes it was the opposition. Although saddened by the latter occurrence, I always consoled myself that at least in 5 years I could help to boot them out and see my party returned to power. Unfortunately, this doesn’t seem to be a possibility if we remain in the EU.
But other factors are helping make my decision about the EU. A visit to an A&E department with an elderly aunt after a bad fall on a Sunday morning – about 80 people waiting to be seen – not an English voice amongst them – mostly Poles. I asked a nurse why this was so and she said that most of them have never registered with a doctor and use A&E like a doctors surgery. One might argue that our NHS wouldn’t function without the huge numbers of foreign staff employed therein. At least ensure they can speak English – I had reason to complain to a nurse whilst visiting my grandson after an operation, about a large fly (bluebottle) settling on his blood-soaked bandages – she stared at me in total incomprehension and did nothing.
I am not at all impressed by the number of Foreign Leaders and Economists trying to frighten us with tales of economic woe if we choose to leave. They of course are protecting their own country’s businesses and hence their political positions.
As far as trade is concerned, we are being told that we need to be part of a trade bloc of 500 million people, and of course risking losing out on a EU/USA trade deal with 300 million Americans. The Commonwealth has over 2000 million people. We treated them abominably when we joined the EU, severing many trade agreements. Is there no way that the Commonwealth could become a trading bloc of ours once again? (Oh – to have New Zealand Lamb on the menu once again!!)
Yes if we successfully vote to leave, things will be tough for a while, but we will win through and I hope I live long enough to hear these so called “Remainers”, claim that we did the right thing to back “Brexit”
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Is this race really neck and neck or a stalemate as Professor Curtice would have us believe?
http://www.ncpolitics.uk/2016/05/11-eu-referendum-update.html/Report
As a nation we don’t embrace european culture and as a result we don’t see ourselves as fitting in. We are on the fringe of european politics as we have made our position clear that we don’t want the euro and we dont want to be a part of a federal system. The problem is that quite a few of the euro countries do. Therefore we are always going to be in a political conflict regarding the future of europe.
The probability of a negative impact on our economy is a factor to consider if the Brexiters win the vote. However, I am sure we have what it takes to take on the economic challenge whatever it presents.
The british media foreign policy is to ignore political and cultural issues of eurpoe and focus more on US issues. To our detriment this has had an impact on how we view ourselves as europeans. I don’t see a future in my lifetime when this will be reversed. I’m probably going to throw in the towel of european membership reluctantly, because the political will is half hearted (In Campaigners). So let the Brexiters do their best and let us all make to most of it without hopefully too much whinging.Report
You state that our problem is that “we don’t embrace European culture” but which European culture do you mean? Is the German culture the same as the Spanish culture? or the French? or the Lithuanian? There is no such thing as a “European culture”. There are a few cultures which are similar. The Mediterranean culture for instance, i.e. Spanish, Italian, Greek, Southern French, Portuguese. But in what way are they similar to the German, or Swedish, or Polish cultures. It is all wishful thinking on the part of the EU bureaucracy in order to coerce a feeling of “community”. We just happen to inhabit the same land mass. We have different histories, different languages, different cultures, different customs etc etc. and nothing can ever change that. There is nothing odd about the British not feeling “European”. If you ask any other European how they define themselves they will not say they are European first. they would be German, French, Italian, Polish etc etc first.
We are on the fringe of the EU politics because the creators of the original 6 members did not want us, the victors of WWII, as part of the original group as they were wary that that would give us too strong a voice in the group which was the reason that de Gaulle vetoed British participation. Many of the new entrants into the EU see many advantages in being part of this block because it is financially very helpful in their development into modern economies. We have no such need and for us it is a costly membership for very few and somewhat dubious advantages.
Yes, there is this greatly vaunted “single market” that we are constantly told is a great advantage. But if you examine it closely all it means is that it is a protectionist customs union for the purpose of keeping goods from the rest of the world at a disadvantage in order to protect uncompetitive home industries. This is no way to trade with the rest of the world. And it is no wonder that the EU is the only part of the world which is stagnant at a time when other parts, particularly the eastern part of Asia are growing at a frenetic pace. The EU is stuck in the practices of the past. And this is where I have to disagree with those who worry that a Brexit would impact negatively on our economy. On the contrary. The moment we leave and we eliminate all the protectionist barriers and regulations imposed by the EU on our trade with the rest of the world our own cost of living would go down by between 8 – 10%. If we have a smart government it would then offer incentives for inward investors in the form of tax holidays, on capital investments etc etc. These are the tools used by the fast growing economies of the Far East to attract inward investment and the results speak for themselves. We will be free of the out of date shackles imposed by the EU regulators to do what is best for Britain without having to protect French farmers, spanish fishermen, Italian textile workers and a host of other uncompetitive vested interests.
Let us take control of our destiny and I am sure we will do a great deal better than those who are trying to scare us from taking our fate in our hands.
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We are getting an endless stream of warning from the in campaign which to me are based on very shaky assumptions. I could say EU migrants now make up 4.6% of the UK population and the NHS budget is £113 billion therefore the migrants are costing the NHS about £5.2 billion per year, which has has as much basis in fact as the statistics the in campaigners are bombarding us with i.e. none.
Also of Europe is benefiting us so much and the consequences of leaving are so bad, why on earth are we going through all this referendum and why do so may people want Britain to get out of the EU? Could it be we are sick of undemocratic bureaucrats making our laws and overruling our courts? Report
Don’t like the ‘eternity’ element of staying in as the uk is’nt big enough to take an endless stream of migrants no matter how much they are prepared to work. We have an indigenous population already short of housing and jobs. Charity needs to begin at home. Report
Walter P · 13 May 2016 at 10:06 pm
However, Immigration is a much clearer effect to witness. Ask anyone trying to get a doctor’s appointment or a school place, or even those poor devils on a never ending housing list. Elites in their armchairs (hopefully all of us here) don’t have to worry about such things.
Those on the ‘shop floor’ of British society most certainly do.
We make fun of them as ‘Kippers’ or Xenophobes at our peril.
They can and do vote.
Even if we voted to stay in this time as a short term easy expedient, it would only be the beginning of our problems.
________________________________________________________________________
Tick on all counts, there are a lot of very discontented people of my generation who haven’t experienced the levels of comfort of previous ones, and we are stirring and will be voting, yes. No one can really say what will happen on the day, but the complacent ‘armchair bores’ both in and out of parliament aren’t going to be sitting comfortably for much longer either way. Report
I’m not sure if that’s yes to leave or to stay. However, if you seriously want to be rich or even affluent you most certainly won’t do it by remaining shackled to a clapped out pan European organization trying to take on the US and the Chinese at their own game.
Just look at the price charts. The EU stocks were and remain a perpetual short position. Ask any hedge fund manager. Charts don’t lie, politicians do. Remember we old capital allocators have got the money because we saw the EU value trap coming and got most of our capital out in time. Your generation can never begin to accumulate capital unless you strike out anew either.
Belonging to the EU isn’t the answer to your financial woes. It never could be. Ask any Spaniard or Greek.
Good luck to you in the future nonetheless whatever the result.
I know which side of the trade I’m on
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That’s a very good point, and it’s one that people are ignoring. While the elites are insisting that the skies will fall, the markets are behaving as if Brexit is no big deal.Report
There are some uncomfortable issues starting to emerge of late for both “in” or “out” sides. The first is fairly obvious to most of us. An Out vote would almost certainly trigger an early General Election. Logic says that it would be a rejection of an elected Government policy. Effectively a vote of no confidence.
The second is less obvious, a Labour, SNP and Lib-Dem coalition. None are that far away from each other for the main points of policy. I.e. economy, defence and home affairs. Even Labour now have a shadow minister who opposes the renewal of Trident. Report
That each side is looking past the other (essentially immigration v economics) makes the whole exercise of accurate prediction so frustrating. Personally I agree with previous contributors both here and on other sites that the ‘Brexiteers’ are more motivated to vote. Hence in the 50:50 scenario which current polls are indicating fractional points will make the difference.
For myself I’m leaning for Brexit. I’ve read enough reports from economic ‘experts’ such as the OECD/IMF/LSE (we called them ‘teenage scribblers’ in my time) when I was an investment banker to know that they are either ignored anyway by serious capital allocators or simply treated as perfect negative indicators. This is not least because their authors have rarely worked long enough to have lived through at least one economic cycle. The absolute minimum level of experience for serious investment work;
However, Immigration is a much clearer effect to witness. Ask anyone trying to get a doctor’s appointment or a school place, or even those poor devils on a never ending housing list. Elites in their armchairs (hopefully all of us here) don’t have to worry about such things.
Those on the ‘shop floor’ of British society most certainly do.
We make fun of them as ‘Kippers’ or Xenophobes at our peril.
They can and do vote.
Even if we voted to stay in this time as a short term easy expedient, it would only be the beginning of our problems.
Report
I think the fact that the (Internet) polls are so close is likely to motivate remainers to vote – as it gives the impression that every vote matters. If remain had a 10 point lead it could lead to complacency and Brexit aneaking in through the back door.Report
Internet polls are verging on pointless. The same story is being played out as per the Scottish Referendum where the Internet polls were much more favourable for the more fervent, noisy side (who desperately sign up for the pollsters and quickly do the poll helping them hit their numbers). The issue with this is as Lee B describes, it over-inflates the worry for the soft-NO (or Remain in this case) and therefore will motivate them to get out and vote. I think for Brexit to have any chance the turnout would have to be below 50% and that is just not going to happen.Report
The important point is not what those polled said how they would vote, but whether they actually bother to do so. So the important question therefore is which of the supporters of the 2 camps is most passionate about their view, something which a poll really can’t estimate. My guess? Overall leavers are more energised about leaving than remainders are about remaining. Therefore anything close to 50/50 on the day, will end up with us leaving. Go leaving.Report
It is not even going to be close – at least 10 points for Remain!Report
It seems no one has addressed the issue of an outcome of a vote of 51-49 either for in or out. It seems this will leave virtually half the population dissatisfied. Although mathematically valid, hardly a recipe for a harmonious future. The only clear conclusion from this is the short comings of referendums in general.Report
I like the point A Smith makes.
I do believe previous results of that nature have been described as “resounding” by politicians when voting on Treaty change.
More seriously, the result could be even closer than that , going down to a re-count. Should there be a point where a
further referendum becomes compulsory until a clear result is achieved (what ever the definition of a clear result is)Report
Yup. In fact, the SNP seem to be treating 55/45 as inconclusive, so I think that the UKIP would treat 51/49 as just the beginning of the campaign for another referendum.
A close win will be a very bad outcome for Cameron and Remain.Report
One thing that worries me ,is, does the publication of the opinion polls themselves influence how people decide to vote. Are there some people that are looking for guidance and see the poll as an indication of what the majority want and therefore must be the way to vote.
Is there any evidence of this either way ?
If the polls do influence the decision making process, is there an argument for not publishing any results
too close to the election itself ? Report
I don’t think people are that gullible. People are swayed only by their own experiences of the bad and good things that come from membership. There isn’t much good that everyday people experience,and politicians and others are known for using truth for their own purpose. big business is the same. If it’s good for those groups it must be bad for the rest of us.Report
Apologies the line spacing on my previous post was wonky. Here is a repost
The study referred to in the link above had this to say about the the determination of Leave voters:
“The notion that Leave voters are more determined to vote in the referendum, based on what Leavers have been telling pollsters, has been little questioned. But this conclusion is heavily dependent on sampling people representatively in terms of relative political interest. Turnout self-reporting is known to be misleading this far out. If instead we consider high and low-turnout demographics, older people are more likely to vote to Leave, but more affluent people are more likely to vote to Remain than less affluent people. In fact if we compare General Election turnout between constituencies, we find that turnout is not higher in more Eurosceptic areas – in fact it is slightly lower.”Report
Yes, again it’s a reasonable point, but it ‘s not the point I am addressing. I am suggesting that a UKIP voter will be *more* likely to follow through and vote in the referendum than in either local elections or a general election.
After all, that’s the whole point of the UKIP. It is a single issue party, and the issue is not who gets elected Mayor of London. it’s Brexit.Report
I take your point but there are far more of the ‘less affluent’ group and they are more likely to vote leave I believe.Report
Wouldn’t it have been more accurate to state that almost the all of the polls conducted via the Internet reasonably close to the polling date overestimated UKIP support?
http://www.ncpolitics.uk/2016/05/super-thursday-postmortem-tells-us-brexit.html/Report
You have a good point, but on the other hand, I think we can assume that UKIP voters – or potential voters – feel more passionately about Brexit than about who is to be Mayor of London.
So if they tell pollsters that they support UKIP, I would guess that would translate into a more reliable estimate of the Brexit vote than a local election vote.
Only time will tell.Report
The study referred to in the link above had this to say about the the determination of Leave voters:
The notion that Leave voters are more determined to vote in the referendum, based on
what Leavers have been telling pollsters, has been little questioned. But this conclusion is
heavily dependent on sampling people representatively in terms of relative political interest.
Turnout self-reporting is known to be misleading this far out. If instead we consider high and
low-turnout demographics, older people are more likely to vote to Leave, but more affluent
people are more likely to vote to Remain than less affluent people. In fact if we compare
General Election turnout between constituencies, we find that turnout is not higher in more
Eurosceptic areas – in fact it is slightly lower. Report
The referendum is not about politics its about this countries history and its future.
Its about the way people feel.
In the past the uk has ruled it self well traded with the world….then we partly joined the eu club…which is not doing well for many members.
Now were in the internet age…we can trade with the world easily…communicate with every country…why do we need to pay for and bolster up a fragmented over inflated eu. …why let the eu be the middle man between uk and the world?
The future can be ours the people of the uk to mold and grow in the way we want.
I erge everyone to think of the next generation in the uk. We and they can be a free rich people again.
Funnily enough approx a third of each population in most eu countries desperately want out of eu too…but they are shackled with the debt relief packages germany (eu) has inforced on them.
Think of eu as a over inflated fragile balloon with a load of pin tacks inside…one small shake and its over….thats why they are desperate for the uk to wrap them up in all our money to stop them from falling apart.
Our past tells us what we should do and our future as the UK is the reason why we have to vote leave….
Be brave….be great BritainReport
First of all, learn how to spell English. Not that it would make much difference to the rubbish you have written, though.Report
Oh you are so clever, perhaps you should go back to where you came from and make it attractive for English people to want to migrate to. Perhaps we can get housing, benefits, health and education for free there.. We are fine without interference from outsiders.Report
I think exactly as you do, as all of my ENGLISH friends do.Report
I think that the ICM poll reinforces the point that Remain and Leave voters are really focusing on different issues. It’s not just that they disagree, but that they find different issues to be the important ones to themselves.
And the Remain campaign is pushing economic issues in their arguments, so they are telling Remain supporters what they already believe, while they are telling Leave supporters about economic issues that Leave supporters do not think are so important.
So I think that the stalemate will continue until someone finds a way to address the issues that will change their opponents’ minds.Report