Do we all think the same about Europe? In one sense the obvious answer to that question is, ‘No’. After all, as our Poll of Polls shows, support for the two sides in the EU Referendum campaign that is now beginning to get into gear is almost evenly matched. At the moment at least Britain appears to be split down the middle on whether to leave or remain.
But this is not the only way in which we can address our question. We can also ask how far different sections of British society are inclined to hold different views about Britain’s membership. This is the perspective adopted by the first in a series of analysis papers to be published on this website as part of its attempt to provide impartial information on public attitudes to Europe in the run-up to the EU Referendum.
There is, after all, good reason to anticipate that some key differences and divisions will exist. Two in particular come to mind. First, we might well anticipate that on balance younger people will hold different views from older people. Second, we might reckon that graduates in well-paid jobs are typically happier about the prospect of remaining in Europe than are those with few, if any, educational qualifications for whom finding and keeping an adequately paid job can be more of a struggle.
Younger people have been brought up in a rather different world than the one in which their parents and grandparents were raised. For them there is nothing new about living in a racially, linguistically and religiously diverse society. They are thus less concerned about immigration – and concern about immigration is one of the key motivations behind many people’s opposition to staying in the EU. At the same time, they have grown up in an age of widespread international travel and communication, an experience that may well have left them more inclined to accept the principle of international collaboration that, for its advocates at least, is exemplified by the European Union.
At the same time, younger people are also more likely to have enjoyed a university education. This experience itself is likely to make them more aware of diverse cultures. But, crucially, such an education also means they are better equipped to secure employment in a labour market in which people from Britain can find themselves in competition for jobs with those living abroad. Indeed, they are also more likely to take advantage of the opportunity afforded by the EU’s freedom of movement provisions to find work in another member state. In contrast, those with fewer educational qualifications who are in less secure, less well paid employment may well feel that what the inflow of migrants from the rest of the EU means greater difficulty in finding a job and a lower rate of pay when they do.
Our paper shows that recent polls and surveys consistently confirm that these differences exist. For a start, typically those aged under 35 are around twenty percentage points more likely than those aged 55 and over to say that they will vote to remain in the EU. There appears to be a big ‘generation gap’ in attitudes towards the EU.
But this is not the biggest gap. According to both the British Social Attitudes survey and the British Election Study, the difference between the views of graduates and those without any educational qualifications is even bigger, at somewhere between 30 and 40 percentage points. Graduates are mostly inclined to vote to remain, while many of those without any educational qualifications say that they want to leave. More broadly, remaining in the EU is relatively popular amongst those with at least some kind of post school leaving age qualification, whereas leaving is relatively popular amongst those whose highest qualification is that which would normally be obtained by the age of 16.
These big differences in attitudes indicate that the referendum is not just a debate about Britain’s relationship with the EU. It also reflects important social divisions within Britain. On one side of the divide are those who are capable of doing well in today’s globalised world and who are relatively comfortable with the cultural diversity this world can create. On the other side are those who feel they lose out from globalisation and are less comfortable with its cultural diversity. The eventual outcome will not only determine whether or not Britain remains in the EU, but will also tell us a lot about what kind of country we think we should be.
Read the full analysis paper:
Britain Divided? Who Supports and Who Opposes EU Membership
By John Curtice
John Curtice is Senior Research Fellow at NatCen and at 'UK in a Changing Europe', Professor of Politics at Strathclyde University, and Chief Commentator on the What UK Thinks: EU website.
There’s been international travel for decades and decades, we don’t need to be in the EU to travel abroad. And not all “young people” are at uneeee and about to apply for a job in Milan…Report
oops sorry that figure was incorrect on one website I visited…apparently it’s 1.3 million in Europe and 4.5M overseas in total. Anyway, lots of ambiguity about what happens to them re medical care, visas, etc..if UK leaves. 🙁 Report
Exactly the same as at present because the vast majority get bugger all for free from the host countries. At the moment they pay for the services that they use and support the local economies with their taxes and spending. After Brexit nothing will change.Report
I’ve not seen any mentioned on here of the 4.5 million British expats currently living in Europe, and the possibility of being forced to repatriate, potentially creating problems for mixed Brit/EU married couples! I’ve not heard any in-depth discussions or assurances on this particular topic.Report
Well said ChrisReport
I will like most of the people I have talked to, be voting to leave.
The relentless tactics of the remain campaign have only hardened my opinion.
Let alone the huge payment we make to be a so called member of this EU club, what about the cost of all of the MEP’s (and their entourage) all travelling first or business class!!
I have worked in an industry dominated by a flood of rules laid down by the EU. What amazes me is that other countries take those same rules, cherry pick and adhere to what they want and disregard the rest.
I also wish that being an island we had adopted the same regulations and standards on immigration that Australia impose.
Having travelled extensively it is clear that we are not particularly liked or favoured in much of Europe. The main reason we have been encouraged by those in Europe to remain is that it is pretty clear that should we vote out, then several countries will follow. So our exit could signal the end of the EU.
The politicians are unhappy as they know that to leave will signal an end to all of the countless swanning around Europe with expensive flights, hotels and meals etc etc
David Cameron is concerned that it will cost the average family £230 extra per month if we leave? How could he begin to relate to that as he probably spends that on a bottle of wine!!
Lets get Great Britain back to what it should be.
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Hear Hear!!!!Report
So sad this morning when I spoke to someone on the phone who said he would be voting remain for ‘his children’ – I’ll be voting leave for pretty much the same reason! Report
Could you not kidnap him and lock him in the coal house on the 23rd June?Report
Interesting comments both pro and against remaining full members of the EEC. If we leave it will not be the end of the world for us. We are exceptionally good traders, always have been, always able to cut a good deal, as an island nation we have had to be good at negotiating with other countries. Cheer up things could be worse America has Donald Trump and remember he don’t give a fig whether we leave or stay in the EEU.
Just act with your own good sense on referendum day: you are intelligent people maybe you’ll get it right : maybe not: who knows: But do voteReport
Get a live, you talking from your back passage. Nothing will happen and we will stay in the EEC and there will be no 4 Reich . Nonsens !!!Report
Volker, you wouldn’t be German by any chance would you?Report
I will be outside the polling station at 7am on 23rd of June and will vote to leave the EU. My only regret is that I only have one vote to cast. The European Union has become a monster controlled by Germany and her partner, France. I have been shocked to see the sensorship imposed on this country by David Cameron’s government. French Police cars attacked and burned on a weekly basis in Calais, race riots in Paris and elsewhere. Germany has tried to dominate Europe twice by military means and has been defeated on both occasions. If we could talk to British and Commonwealth soldiers who died in those two world wars and explained that Germany would rise again and then control Europe without a shot being fired, I ask you, what would they make of that?
I do not want to become part of the Fourth Reich and will fight to my last breath to retain this country’s independance. We will never get another chance to leave the EU. The remain campaign has been truely shocked at how close the opinion polls are and measures will be put in place to stop referendums taking place anywhere in Europe again. It’s now or never. Your country and your queen needs you to stand up and be counted.Report
Dave Wilks –
Economically it has been shown that Bremain is clearly better than Brexit.
Also, for your information:
Please note that EU Eurozone AND Britain is not part of SchengenReport
For Thatchers children it is only about the money. Some of us regard other things as being more important.Report
And how long will it be before we are forced to be part of Schengen?Report
You simply need to watch this if your unsure, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eYqzcqDtL3kReport
When we voted to go in it was a common market to trade freely not a european superstate and when the rules bend to let in turkey god help us. I would not let the eurofiles run a tiddlywinks championship never mind a continent.Report
We need to leave the EU as soon as possible, over the years our way of life has been over controlled by others and this has cost us a great deal in money by enforced changes that have only been to the benefit of other EU members. If we remain things will only get worse ass the EU member like France and Germany will turn on us and force us to do their will at great cost to Britain. Report
I have asked eveyone I know the following questions.
How do you intend to vote?
Do you know anyone who will be voting to remain?
As of yet I have not come across anyone who will be voting to remain, nor have the people I asked.
My conclusion then is that most polls are not broud enough to reflect the overall opinion and that the polsters are focusing on small sections of the public rather than the wider whole.
The only thing I can conclude is that David Cameron will on the 23rd be looking for another job.
Id also like to add after looking through some of the above comments that because I feel that a leave vote is for me some sort of skin headed union jack clad moron, it makes me a member of the public of Britan who has decided to use his small voice along with many others to try and make a change that will bennefit my family and my coutry as they are my only concearn.Report
wait till we have the EURO by the end of this year, then see the stayers wish they had been leavers
should it all go wrong.Report
Rose, do you not remember the announcement by Mr Cameron to the effect that he will be resigning his position as Prime Minister before the next election, your electoral woes will, I’m afraid will remain.
As a fellow lover of Thai curries we at last have common ground, however under your leave model we shall have many thousands of unskilled associates of every Thai curry chef tagging along and effectively forced to accommodate them, under my brexit model we can have as many Thai chefs as we wish plus any others with the skills we require without those whose none skills we do not.Report
I have been thinking some more, and another reason for me to vote remain is….. it seems that if we leave david cameron will step down (he says he won’t, but he will) then the future is either Boris Johnson or ukip get in and nigal farage will be leader. I do not fancy either of those guys leading our country, i’ll stick with cameron thank you very much.
Secondly, we are an aging population, currently there are 4 working age people for every 1 person aged over 65, when I am over 65 there will be 2. Who is going to wipe the dribble off my chin if we don’t have any cheap european labour anymore? We need to face the reality that we need migration, more that it needs us.
I went for a thai curry the other night, and was saying to my boyfriend how 10 years ago, it was so hard to find an authentic thai curry in england, but now it’s so easy. That’s thanks to migration. More authentic curries please!Report
Rose I cant believe what you write about your hero David Cameron.Havent you notice how many lies hes told or manifesto promises broken.Did you not see him grinning stood at the
side of Hollande when the latter was threatening the British people and your hero not only
allowed but encouraged this.Also you mentioned about him stepping down as if it would be a great loss.God help us if he doesnt.I work in the community and trust me the public have lost
confidence in him.Regarding Boris Johnson whom I neither like or dislike .He now has my
respect for the simple reason he has GUTS He proved this by not being intimidated by the U.S.president(Whos visit by the way has proved counter-productive.) David C
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GUTS)) LMFAO. the guy has guts, 2 years ago he was pro europe, now he changes, because he wants to be prime minister, god help this country, if the no,s get their way. It will be worse than Nazi Germany wasReport
You obviously know nothing about Nazi GermanyReport
Rose it will take a minimum of two years to disentangle ourselves from the monster over the channel, during which time our sales people will be all over the world drumming up business based on UK negotiated prices that do not have EU on costs applied (Cheaper) now ask yourself would you buy at a cheaper cost,, of course you would and other countries will do exactly that, it is what is frightening the EU about out leaving. Remember there is nothing made in the EU that the UK cannot or will not build or manufacture better or cheaper. Report
* WE not beReport
Ok thanks Trevor. I am still confused though. I just read this article http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2016/feb/22/brexit-eu-referendum-paul-mason
and then realised the last sense is exactly what I am (we are) doing on this forum. I feel like a huge reason to be scared to vote leave is that no one is saying what will happen if we leave. I don’t understand why the OECD say there will be this huge tax for Brexit, but actually won’t be stop ‘paying in’ to the EU and won’t this cover it? So confusing!
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Come on Rose OECD is government/EU funded ergo you are not going to get the turkeys to vote for Christmas now are we.
This just more of the fear campaign, open your mind and remember that this country has traded with the entire world for hundreds of year,, very very successfully without trade deals, we even set most of the third world free a couple of outstanding successes, Australia and New Zealand (Who are keen to trade with a free UK and with removal of EU tariffs would make goods imported from them cheaper) others were granted freedom and completely screwed it up Zimbabwe (Rhodesia) for instance once the bread basket of Africa now a basket case slowly dying on a tide of Chinese debt. The EU is printing money al la Zimbabwe to support the Euro which will have to be paid for or the entire edifice will implode. The sooner the better, we need out just as fast as we can make it happen we need our freedom and we will never ever waste it. Report
AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND with a population of how many, Will replace the whole of our european market??
Are you for real? Report
Ok repliers I am interested to read your responses. Let’s not talk about kettle wattage, as that’s such a small issues (I think!). But what is all this about then:http://www.oecd.org/unitedkingdom/the-economic-consequences-of-brexit-a-taxing-decision.htm Surely this is based on somekind of truth?!!
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Oh Dear Rose where o where to start,
Fact, most folk in the UK do not take all of their holiday entitlement at this time and why should a post EU government limit that entitlement?
Your super rich hero Mr Cameron will believe me be toast if we vote out which will probably result in a couple of terms Tory free government.
The off shore accounts favoured by the likes of Camerons dad will not change, they were and are created during our membership of the EU and what about the flat tax 20% I understand applied to EU ministers and commissioners i’d like some of that as expect you would too.
Food banks a direct result of austerity a lost cause as created by your hero Mr Cameron and his inept side kick Mr Osborne.
So you don’t trust Cameron ,,, then why o why vote to remain madness.
All business trades for profit, at different levels possibly, but profit none the less.
Think UK farmers don’t use anti biotics, please extend your research you missed an important bit.
Under TTIP you will have no choice but to consume products authorised in the UK. EU are falling over themselves to bring this horrendous treaty/agreement into being asap. they also want to enshrine secrecy preventing whistle blowers, well blowing the whistle.
If your potential children will be living in a world you dislike then why not change it to one where you/we want to be and stop allowing others i.e. EU commissioners from deciding for you.
If you have the money to look after yourself any country will welcome you and yours.
If you like the idea of globalisation why vote to restrict yourself to less than twenty percent of it vote out and you can be part of 100% of it.
Do some science regarding kettle wattage it x amount of power to raise the temperature of a litre of water, in fact doe to the low start up it wll cist more and use more power to utilize a lower wattage kettle.
ope this helps and the essay goes wellReport
We won’t have holiday pay LisaS because currently we are governed by EU laws around working conditions. Do you really think the current government are going to keep worker rights if we leave the EU? https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_minimum_annual_leave_by_country – the majority of non-EU countries have lower holiday allowance. People also aren’t convinced because David cameron is public school education, whose father evaded tax and who gets £100k given to him as ‘a present’ from some family member (I may have got some of these facts a little off but my point still stands) he doesn’t exactly speak for the people now does he? I have never seen £100k in my bank balance, not even half of that. The tories also give more consideration to industry (google etc only paying 3% tax) than people (e.g.-sanctioning people on benefits -which means stopping their benefits for 4-5 weeks- if they volunteer somewhere/go on a course their benefits officer doesn’t think is appropriate). And did anyone here know that benefit sanctions are given as the biggest reason for why 2million people use food banks, which is another point – why are 2 million people using food banks? And are any of these state run? No, they are run by good everyday people working in charities and church groups etc. So to go back to my point about why we should not leave the EU is, David Cameron will be very unlikely to uphold consideration for people, and that’s why lots of people are voting remain (ok so cameron ‘apparently’ want to remain but I don’t trust him). We will obviously start trading more with industries based around profits as the primary outcome, and as an example I am not convinced that we will only trade with food companies that don’t use growth hormones (currently banned under EU law) if they don’t have to any longer (not currently banned in the usa -who we may start buying meat from). These laws are not in place for fun and games guys, they are there to protect us.
In answer to the question ‘where are all the yes voters?’ It’s quite likely they are the under 40 year old population who are working 40-50 hours weeks so can’t to spend as much time on forums (I am currently meant to be writing an essay -but it’s about health and the EU so sort of relevant), whilst the majority of people commenting on this post are quite likely retired and have time for things like this, maybe. Don’t get defensive if you are over 65, but you do have more time.
I personally don’t want my kids (when I have them) to grow up in a world where money and profits are everything, -which is kinda already is tbh. I also have a nice dream of buying a house in Italy when I retire (-this will be when i’m 70 mind, as that’s how long i’ll be working until) and I want freedom of movement, hell I might even work out there when I’m 60, I want that guaranteed (and not just Italy, I also speak Spanish). I like the point the article makes about young people embracing globalisation, it’s very true and it’s the future. I also don’t think for one moment leaving the EU will reduce immigration – people will just come from other countries http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-34793572. I for one don’t care if my kettle takes 10 seconds longer to boil, it’s a small price to pay.Report
Rose – always surprised by peoples comments.
If we had not been part of the EEC/EU does not mean we would developed the same workers rights.
Anyhow, the laws we have at present will stay as they have been agreed by parliament and we aren’t going to repeal them.
I have worked and lived all over the world and the only difference with going outside the EU is that sometimes I have to apply for a work visa – believe me that’s no great problem. What we have now is mass uncontrolled immigration into main land Europe. They then get the EU identity card and have unrestricted access to the UK. What has happened in Paris and Brussels is down to this half baked policy – it will only be time before what happened there will happen here.
I don’t think anyone is against movement of people its just that it needs some control otherwise our national health service, education, social cohesion are just going to break down.
We can fix any problems by our won energies. I have the greatest respect for my fellow country men- we are a great people with great attributes and all that is needed is we need to be free from EU tyranny.
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What is the leave campaigns plan, other than appeasing the xenophobes, and the pathetic little people, who are jealous of anybody coming here to work, while certain people sit on their government mobility scooters, because they wil not work, and when we go into the new recession, you will all be shouting its their fault. Get A GRIPReport
James, please be careful calling folk xenophobic most are not and do not aspire to be so, I welcome people to come here to work all they need is the right skills and qualifications to abide by our laws and live by our standards.
Disability can and often does strike out of the blue, my wife is disabled, after working for 46 years and raising a family she lost most of her sight and now has dementia. it could happen to you I truly hope it does not but it could you know.
As for recession if you check technically we are currently in one and absolutely nothing to do with brexit but a lot to do with the EU/Austerity.
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Tell me how many on here know the eu member of parliament and how much it costs to keep that member in brussels i will tell u now none zero ziltch. Thats why i am out. Britain better for being britain.Report
We had workers rights before we joined the EUReport
Well see what’s happen, what be will be , but don’t come back and say I told you so !
Why does Cameron wants to stay then ?Report
Maybe Cameron is eyeing up an EU post for when he steps down as PM. He sold his shares in Panama, so maybe he has to compensate by going for one of those fat salary but only 21% flat rate tax Eurocrat posts. Funny that Eurocrat tax rates are so different from the rate that us plebs have to pay. Still, there is nothing quite like the ” Do as I say and not as I do” philosophy!Report
Power and control, Cameron was offered a job by the deputy president of Europe, ahh sorry Angela the PRESIDENT of Europe.
That is a job which will offer a bottomless pit of an expenses account, a job for life and a gold plated pension.
Cameron is similar to Blair – illegal war monger, becomes Peace Envoy !!!!
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