Welcome to our website. If you want to see what people think of the issues that are being debated in the referendum on the UK’s membership of the European Union, you are in the right place. Equally, if you want to make sense of the latest polls on how people might vote in the referendum – or maybe would like to learn a bit more about why people are inclined to vote one way or the other – again, this is the site for you.
There are two main parts to the site. The first comprises a lot of data. We are bringing together what we think is all of the significant polling and survey data on the subject collected in Britain during the last five years. In cases where these questions were also asked on polls or surveys conducted before 2010, the details of the earlier readings are given too. Polls conducted separately in one of the four component parts of the UK are also included.
The outcome of the referendum will, of course, eventually be determined by voters in the UK. But in the meantime the UK government is hoping to ‘renegotiate’ Britain’s terms of membership, and that is an issue that concerns the rest of the EU too. What other countries will be willing to offer will depend in part on what their voters are willing to accept. So we are also collating and providing the results from some of the major EU-wide surveys conducted since 2004, together with polling results for its larger member states.
However, the centerpiece of this section of the site is our EU Referendum Poll of Polls – a running average of the latest six polls on how people propose to vote in the referendum. This is our quickest guide to the latest evidence on which way the vote is likely to go.
All of the data can be displayed in graphical form as well as viewed as a table. There are also facilities for downloading the charts and the underlying data. So that you can decide for yourself how reliable and robust a poll finding is, we provide details of how each poll was conducted, full details of the exact wording of each question, and, wherever possible, a link back to the original source of the data.
The second main part of the site contains commentary and analysis – in which this blog is the first entry! Here you will find blogs –by myself and by occasional guest contributors – on the latest polling and on attitudes towards some of the key issues in the campaign. There is also an opportunity for you to post (politely please!) your reactions and responses to what is said. Meanwhile, for those who would like more information and a slightly longer read, we will also be posting occasional analysis papers that discuss at rather greater length some of the key patterns and trends in attitudes towards the European Union.
Finally, just to be clear, we are not trying to persuade you to vote one way or another. Much like a similar website we ran during the Scottish independence referendum, What Scotland Thinks, we simply want to make it relatively straightforward for you to see what your fellow citizens think about the referendum and, perhaps, to gain some insight into why. Explore and enjoy!
By John Curtice
John Curtice is Senior Research Fellow at NatCen and at 'UK in a Changing Europe', Professor of Politics at Strathclyde University, and Chief Commentator on the What UK Thinks: EU website.
My wife and myself have already voted out.
There is no democracy in the EU superstate.
Ok we have a veto but how often have we come off best, hardly ever, maybe on minor affairs but never the big questions.
This will make it almost impossible to put our point across especially when more nations join the union over the next few years.
One size does not fit all. We can see with Italy, Spain, Portugal, Greece etc that it doesn’t work. Everyone has to toe the line to Germany & French tune mainly as it suits their economy so blow everyone else.
When the other eastern European states Ieventually join their economic power will be much smaller & they will suffer like Bulgaria, Romania etc as a huge proportion of their populace will emigrate to richer countries, leaving a shortage of workforce for their own already struggling economy.
We already have a city migrating to this country the size of Newcastle upon Tyne every year, can our infrastructure really cope with that amount of people.
We’re told by the in campaign that the NHS would collapse if no immigrants from the EU worked in the NHS. This is an untruth as only 5% of their workforce is EU. The main contributors are from outside EU, South Africa, Australia, Thailand etc & can be if required controlled by Government where as nothing can be done about EU subjects.
David Cameron says he won an agreement from the EU to stop benefits & send home any EU imigrants without a job etc.
Another untruth, EU imigrants can still claim tax credits, unemployment benefits after only 3 mths & as for sending home if no job as claimed, they can only be politely asked as there is no ruling to send anyone back as against EU rules.
We will be charged tariffs if we leave, we already have to pay tariffs that strangles imports & exports to non EU countries.
e.g a hovercraft builder had enquiries for definite orders to Mexico, but because of the EU tarrifs made them too expensive so business lost. Tate & Lyle the sugar refiners that we have all heard of import sugar cane from the former colonies but have to pay over £3million in import tarrif to the EU.Why because the EU supports beet sugar grown in France, Spain etc so is looking at own interests not UK.
There are more reasons to be out than in& I could probably keep writing forever.
I am not racist, it’s not racist to worry about your country, we do need imigrants as our working population age is getting older, but we need to be able to choose who comes & who doesn’t. If there are jobs that Brits can’t fill we should look at the reasons, mostly it’s because of lack of training, bursary removal & expensive college and university education by government policy because of the austerity measures which by all accounts even though I don’t like it, it was necessary. Its funny though how the illustrious IMF condemned the tory government for doing it as they wanted us to go the same way as the socialist french model but when they saw it working for us they said it was a good idea & advised the EU to do the same, but they didn’t & that’s why they’re in the mess they’re in.
The same IMF who are 15% financed by the EU who told us to be in ERM, EU currency etc & now forecasting armageddon for this country. The leave campaign says 90% of economists say we will struggle outside the EU, this was from a group of 600, as there are over 4000 economists in the UK did they just choose from the most favourable?
My family are descendents of imigrants and have fought for the country etc & proud to be British, I’m not a nationalist even though I may sound it, We just need a level playing field & as the EU seems to be going backwards & they don’t know what to do next,lurching to the extreme left & extreme right to fascism with Penn in France & the far right in Austria it’s best to get out now while we have probably the last chance to do so or get swallowed up in the united States of Europe who now have revealed that after the referendum should we stay in will face a punishment for disrupting the EU with other members like Sweden contemplating referendum should we go out. Already passed by the presidents/masters is that ALL EU citizens including us, will be issued with an EU national insurance number to pay from your wages direct to the EU whatever percentage they desire plus they want to know what assets you have to probably tax you on that as well.
Well my father sure didn’t vote for any of this just a common market.If that was all it was then fine but we have no say what so ever & it wasn’t a superstate 1984 style to come ?
The nations forces to be swallowed into a European army to annoy Russia.
As I said before there are loads of reasons for coming out more than staying in.Too many lies are being told by remain campaign with the heavy weights John I cocked it up again Major & Tony trust me I’m an honest guy Blair who want to be president of the EU ,talk about self interest,
& failures Mr & Mrs Kinnock on the gravy train earning squalid amounts thanks to EU.
You can only vote once & I ask that you use your vote wisely. I am not affiliated to any political party in any way just a concerned British citizen who wants freedom for democracy in this great country of ours.
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Having recently found out from an eastern European, that as she has been in the UK for five years , she can now vote on our referendum!!!!! If we only took into account that British nationals only could vote on “our” referendum, I have no doubt we would leave this corrupt, inept, and undemocratic dictatorship. There are countless millions of non Britons able to vote, why would they vote to leave and be reduced back to a fraction of their earning power?Report
Here is how I see it, doing anything important or out of our safety zone for the first time ,or doing things we are not used to can be scary, even setting up a small business where you are investing your life savings and risking your home is emotional and difficult, in that situation you have to trust in your own abilities and not everyone is totally confident in their skills. If you ask any yachtsman leaving harbour for the first time after spending years fitting out his boat and probably dreaming of sailing away he will tell you that the most difficult part is letting those mooring lines go for the first time, but once you have let go then you have to get on with it, and your confidence builds. And that is where we seem to be with this EU.
I have university age daughters and rightly they are scared of the unknown, after all they have known nothing else, basically they are afraid to let their mooring lines go. The unemployed folk of the EU may want to come here to find work, that is normal , but there are only so many jobs available and it won’t make anything better by introducing a whole bunch of folk from the EU, no matter what their reasons for coming here. I try to point out to my daughters that in spite of Europe being ‘big’ and seemingly protective the people that run it are not doing such a great job, very high unemployment in some parts, huge debit burdens and financial mismanagement meaning that the European Central bank is needing to print billions of euros of ‘new’ fiat currency each month to keep the whole thing going, the EU itself is on the edge of falling apart , ask the Greeks or a Spanish teenager , frankly the picture as a whole is pretty dark and this is what the remain camp want us to keep signed up to, What ? so we can be dragged down with them ?
It is just not great is it ?
I fully agree that it can be beneficial to have some folk who are not native to this country working here, but this should be under licence or work visa , ‘no job no stay’ and we should be able to chose who they are and why they are here. I have little doubt that the claims by the remain campaign that most immigrant workers pay taxes etc are true . But there is a flip side to this, that they just do not mention do we really need people from anywhere in the world to stack shelves in supermarkets, or change tyres in garages ,there are keen unemployed folk who are native to this country who can do that, and would do it if the wages paid gave them enough to live on . How can we plan for the services we expect in the future if millions of new people come , they will not be after the David Cameron’s job ….. they will however be after yours !
Unlike David Cameron and his corporate chums I live in the real world and from the bottom up the country looks very different than from the top looking down, out of touch is an understatement.
I have liked some of being a European, I like Europeans in general , I have enjoyed the diversity of cultures, freedom of travel to holiday and tour, there are many positives as I suspect we all know, but the EU seems to want to erode those cultures ( not just mine) and make us all ‘one’, well we aren’t , we can adapt but we will always remain a member of our parent nation, a French man will always be a French man, who is also a European but try asking him if he is Dutch ! You can try to impose these things on people but in reality and at a personal level, it just doesn’t work.
So I say we should vote leave, like the yachtsman let go of our mooring lines, take our chance to go it alone, we have old friends and historic ties, it may not be as stormy out there as David Cameron might have us believe. Please Vote ‘Leave’ !
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When it comes to the impending referendum there is only one issue to consider. Just one, because all other issues between the EU and Britain stem from it. That issue is whether or not you wish to be ruled by 28 people whose names you probably do not know, whom you have never elected and whom you cannot get rid of if dissatisfied with their performance.
These people make most of the laws which now govern us and take precedence over any generated by our elected parliament (the exact proportion is vague). The European Commission has the exclusive right to invent new legislation and decide upon priorities. The European Parliament exists as only a rubber stamp to give the Commission an appearance of democratic respectability and its primary purpose is to ratify legislation determined by the Commission. Parliament cannot veto decisions of the unelected Commission.
If you really do not mind being dictated to by these foreigners of which only one of the 28 voices represents you in a law-making body with 27 aliens who have no interest whatever in you – then by all means vote to remain in the EU. But, if you do so vote, do not be surprised when, in due course, England disappears. If you think that cannot happen, then please research the Euro region named Arc Manche. (You know about that, do you not? No? I thought not).
A German Chancellor once said ‘What good fortune for governments people do not think’. So be a heretic and think before you vote.
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We as a family had relatives in New Zealand also 2 firstcousins served in WW11 and did note understand Ted Heath taking us into Europe on a lie,also he gave away our fishing grounds to placate De Gaul every government has given into there ambition for a federal state.we must get out
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I agree with you jjf – what would you say to the reintroduction of conscription within the UK after we have left since it is my contention that the discipline instilled by a military training, however brief, stands the recipient in good stead for the rest of their life.
I trained as a lawyer but abandoned it after some years, jumped on a ship (you could do that then) headed for Canada, did some years in logging camps and it was the finest experience I ever had with strict discipline but without the blanco.
I say OUT, OUT and OUT again – let’s have our beloved country back and be upright and proud to have then the potential to make Britain great again and restore it to being the finest country in the world once more.Report
as a forces veteran of 22 years, i believe, if we stay in the eu, young people will have a big shock. in order to form an eu armed forces they will bring in conscription.Report
I vote to leave, we cannot cope with all the immigration that has happened and the future immigration that will happen, our nhs, schools emergency services and also accommodation are all at breaking point, it’s time to leave and go it alone as we did before. Staying in the eu only benefits the richReport
Migrants coming to the UK since the year 2000 have been less likely to receive benefits or use social housing than people already living in the country, according to a study that argues the new arrivals have made a net contribution of £25bn to public finances.
People from European Economic Area countries have been the most likely to make a positive contribution, paying about 34% more in taxes than they received in benefits over the 10 years from 2001 to 2011, according to the findings from University College London’s migration research unit. Other immigrants paid about 2% more than they received.
Recent immigrants were 45% less likely to receive state benefits or tax credits than people native to the UK and 3% less likely to live in social housing, says the report written by Professor Christian Dustmann and Dr Tommaso Frattini.Report
Lets take this one point at a time and from a different point of view .
Mark:
1. Migrants coming to the UK since the year 2000 have been less likely to receive benefits or use social housing than people already living in the country, according to a study that argues the new arrivals have made a net contribution of £25bn to public finances.
ans……But many do receive them, , yes ? Of course if they are here and working they are possibly taking work away from British people who are on benefits and having to use social housing, have you tried to buy a house on minimum wage , get real, Often much of the money migrant workers earn goes back to home their country to support families in low wage countries, go and stand in a post office or bank and see the money transfers being sent out of this country each month , do I blame them , no never, just the EU system that promotes it and imposes it on us. So ask yourself this ,
What is the % of citizens from the UK that claim benefits outside of UK but in the EU.
What is the % of Citizens from the UK who live in the EU are housed in social housing provided by other countries in the EU
Of the thousands of UK citizens living in the EU how many are directly and financially supported buy the EU countries they live in.
Of these what is the % who are actually retired on UK pensions and make a 100% net contribution to those economies and are never supported or housed by those countries.
What % of the thousands of UK citizens who live and work in the EU rely on social housing in the EU or the EU public purse to support them.
Please think about it !
This is not a good deal for working class people here in the UK is it ?
Mark:
2. People from European Economic Area countries have been the most likely to make a positive contribution, paying about 34% more in taxes than they received in benefits over the 10 years from 2001 to 2011, according to the findings from University College London’s migration research unit. Other immigrants paid about 2% more than they received.
ans…… What ? More likely than me and my family for the past 60 years. Does this also include the original cost for hospitals, schools etc , they all; had to be built you know, we all paid for these years before they ever got here , they would have to have been paying in for 30 years at least to catch up with what most of us have paid in , these figures mean nothing
Mark:
3. Recent immigrants were 45% less likely to receive state benefits or tax credits than people native to the UK and 3% less likely to live in social housing,.
ans………. Again mainly because they are not entitled, and only 3% less likely to live in social housing , that might indicate that 97% likely to live in social housing than compared to British people . So how many bankers and financial consultants do we know who live in social housing? So who is most affected by this , well low income families are aren’t they .
OK so what is the % of the many British people who go and live in Spain that rely on the Spanish to house them ?
Or France, or Greece , You need to be a bit more pragmatic about this whole system we have had imposed on us.
Please vote ‘Leave’ Report
Good morning! Having just been subjected to more propaganda on TV on behalf of the In Campaign I am dismayed at the way it is allowed to go unchecked! The money we get from the EU is our money not EU money, it came from us in the first place! All the European institutions and big businesses are piling in with support for the IN campaign and they can afford to do so as it clearly is in their interests to keep us in! The question is “Who benefits most from being in the EU? Is Brussels, is it big business, is it the grass roots of UK employees, or is it those backing their political ambitions within UK government and associated EU structure. I can’t see the lower rate taxpayers benefiting, they just pay their taxes to be dished out at the whim of Brussels to accommodate the emerging problems from new or potential EU members.
I can’t help but believe that most of the “IN” supporters fall into the categories of the “mislead” or at worst hold personal “biased interests”. It is so obvious that EU institutions are trying to capitalise on voters in the UK by broad brush unsubstantiated propaganda in a desperate attempt to keep the UK “IN” because the EU would be so much worse off without our money and participation. The magnitude of alleged reasons for the UK to stay in is clearly unbelievable! Indeed, if there was any real truth in their claims we wouldn’t be having a referendum? Perhaps the real gravity that drives the desperation to keep the UK “IN” is not some sort of affection but the fear that it could mark the start of the EU’s fragmentation!
It really is time the “Leave” campaign got its act together and dismantled the “IN” propaganda to let people see how false it is!
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I agree with this guy Dolph on everything he’s said.things will get much worse if we stay in the eu.the British public will have to pay the increasing bill to eu=higher taxes for us!no future for our children!
if people are thinking of staying in the eu..they’ll regret it!!
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i vote LEAVE.Cameron is lying to us
STRONGER ECONOMY????it will be under strain even more if we stay in!!!!!
PREVENTING CRIME????excuse me?because of eu..we let murderers/rapists ect through our borders..probably laughing at us..they even get benefits..nice house ect courtesy of CAMERON!
SAFER JOBS.the europeans and other illeagals take our jobs!!
THE NHS is crippled waiting times are increasing due to too many Europeans.
THE MONEY WE GIVE TO EUROPE WILL INCREASE…SOME HAS TO PAY FOR THIS…US THE PUBLIC.THIS MONEY??£350 BILLION estimated.COULD BE SPENT ON US THE BRITISH
*****************************V***O***T***E***L***E***A***V***E*** i know what i will do
THINGS WILL ONLY GET MUCH WORSE IF WE REMAIN IN EU!
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I agree with most people on this site:Cameron has lied before….he’s a liar now
if we stay we’ll be overrun my migrants&Europeans,
how can cameron say the nhs will be better if we stay-its crippled now,jobs are not safe-Europeans & migrants are taking them and taking our benefits.We were better off when we were not in the eu.financially we’d be better off.I am certainly voting TO LEAVEReport
Migrants coming to the UK since the year 2000 have been less likely to receive benefits or use social housing than people already living in the country, according to a study that argues the new arrivals have made a net contribution of £25bn to public finances.
People from European Economic Area countries have been the most likely to make a positive contribution, paying about 34% more in taxes than they received in benefits over the 10 years from 2001 to 2011, according to the findings from University College London’s migration research unit. Other immigrants paid about 2% more than they received.
Recent immigrants were 45% less likely to receive state benefits or tax credits than people native to the UK and 3% less likely to live in social housing, says the report written by Professor Christian Dustmann and Dr Tommaso Frattini.Report
Will vote to leave.
I have no issues with immigration if our infrastructure could put up with it. We have a beautiful international heritage. But if we are financially better off from benefits of immigrants, as we are told, why are we striving to cut budgets further and stretch out resources even more. Our teachers, nurses and doctors and other service providers deserve better so they in turn can look after us. So do our future generations.
I sometimes work 7 days a week to run my business so I can help ensure my clients get value for money, but feel heartbroken that my kids may not benefit from the education and support they deserve despite the amount of tax and NI and PAYE my company pays, and the physical output my company produces which I am proud of.
We deserve better. Report
Yes I agree 100% our children and there children won’t have a future if we stay has 5 new poor countries will join EU where do you think they will head!!!!!Report
Listening to the Prime Minister today trying to say that UK leaving the EU could bring about a war is a step beyond the pale. What sort of idiots do they think the public are. Obviously “Call me Dave” is just frightened of actually have to be a leader and Prime Minister representing this country to the world.
Why are we not seeing and hearing more about TTIP, that alone is enough of a reason to get out of the EU. This country has stood strongly in support of Europe and will continue to do so but we must realise we are NOT physically a part of Europe, we are an Island.Report
George Osborne – like every chancellor and Prime Minister since 1972, firmly believes we should stay. Osborne is completely obsessed with balancing the books even dipping into the disabled budget yet he never once suggests leaving the EU so that we could have our £10 billion net back to invest as we think fit. Why? Because he knows we would lose far far more than we contribute. Inward investment in the UK from the rest of the world was estimated last year at £975 billion and accounted for 3 million jobs.
Much of this was invested because by locating in the UK the companies concerned had access to the single market of 27 countries. A large chunk of these companies would choose to locate to a country still in the EU. If a third relocated, a million jobs would be lost.
The scenario of a leave vote is quite horrific. Report
I dont know what job you do but i work in construction and most of the eastern european lads on site have 2 national insurance numbers in different names and work 6 months on 1 and 6 months on the other so they dont pay tax and they are proud of it. So how is that contributing to our economyReport
In 1945 Europe had suffered 2 devastating wars in the space of 31 years. The skyline of much of Europe looked very much like that of Syria today. Both of these wars were due to nationalism, as had the wars for centuries in Europe. The basic conflict was between France and the Germanic nations. In 1945 the leaders, with Churchill to the fore, vowed to deal with this situation once and for all. The Common Market leading to the EU was born and since then war in Western Europe has been inconceivable. It isn’t so in all parts of Europe. We still remember the devastating effects of Serbian nationalism in the 1990’s. All Cameron was saying was that if British withdrawal weakens the EU and more countries follow suit, conflict may once again be on the agenda. NATO has defended and continues to defend its member countries against hostility from Russia and its allies and five NATO General Secretaries have expressed fears of what might happen if we leave the EU. 14 of the 27 EU members in the last 70 years have been dictatorships either of the right or of the left. Now they are committed to democracy and human rights. The civilising effect of the EU has been quite remarkable.Report
My dear fellow, you concluded your last comment with ‘the civilising effect of the EU has been quite remarkable’. I find this an absolutely unbelievable statement to have made. Here we are – in June 2016 virtually forced to witness Europe being thrown into total chaos by the twin effects of the Schengen agreement and the almost inevitable consequential flooding of the continent by desperate and economic migrants. Facilities in many European countries are being stretched almost to breaking point, we are witnessing the rise in popularity of extreme political parties, assaults if not rapes of women on the screens of those who have televisions (I never have had since I do not require propaganda to be fed to me by the British Brainwashing Corporation) and you have the gall to comment that the civilising effect of the EU has been quite remarkable’ !!!!
My dear fellow – I feel that possibly, just about the only thing left for any of us to try to do is to place you back on your trolley.Report
Im old enough to remember being conned by Harold Wilson.Shame on him.If I allow myself to be conned again by Cameron Shame on me!!Nobody can argue with the truth and I hope the will of the British people
not weaken as there is so much lies and propaganda being put out by the goverment.Theresa May gave weak support to remain also said the sky wouldnt fall in if we left clever girl.Report
Everyone should realise the millions of pounds we waste being a member of this club, according to ‘fullfact.org’ The UK pays more into the EU budget than it gets back.
I quote :- “More than €133.6 billion of European Union budget payments last year were “affected by material error”… the European Court of Auditors fails to give the EU budget a clean bill of health for the 21st year running.”
– so what is the point. These funds could be better used to fund the NHS, Police, Fire Brigade, the disadvantaged, and all those other essential participants of OUR society, rather than throwing Tax Payers money at an undemocratically elected group of faceless, foreign bureaucrats, in another country, who haven’t even the wit to produce acceptable audited accounts, tell us what our laws are to be, who we can and cannot allow into OUR country.
Frankly the sooner we dump these irresponsible sponging ‘free-loaders” the better. It has been seen that the European Dream is not working, and with 28 other countries ‘Vetoing’ any suggestions we put forward we are never going to have anything approaching the authority to run OUR country the way we see fit. Our leader is under some illusion he can achieve a better deal for the UK,but the other ‘club’ members can ‘U turn’ any decisions made, and there ain’t a thing he can do about it.
There is only only one reasonable and sensible answer to this ‘obfuscation’ and that is OUT OUT OUT
on the other 27 countries in this club could be better used Report
Leave Leave LeaveReport
I vote to leave due to far too much interference from EU in our affairs.
What size of the Banana to be sold in shops and have made the British People have
NO SAY in any matters affecting Us the Brits.
Look at the Mass immigration from the Eastern Bloc. Report
I vote leave. I don’t care what happens afterwards, our politicians will just have to deal with that, its what we pay them for, I just want OUT of the EU because I’m sick of its overbearing interfering sanctimonious smug faced attitude to absolutely EVERYTHING to do with my life. We should leave the EU and set up a new trading block with ICELAND, NORWAY and all the others that have to PAY HUGE sums to ‘free trade’ with the EU. Free trade, what a laugh, its a cartel nothing more. If companies do that they get fined.Report
I was undecided however after U.S intervention I have decided to leave.I dont claim to understand most of
it but Im voting on trust and I no longer trust this goverment.
The brexit people seem more decent and honest and genuine.
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I will vote to leave over EU and mass immigration.Report
I will vote to leave the EU simply because I want my Britishness back, I hate being ruled by mindless EU officials who have no idea whatsoever about our treasured way of life. They have completely lost their way on controlled immigration Report
I vote to leave. the same as I did last time. What would the UK look like outside the EU? Much the same as it did before we joined. Before we joined We built hospitals; schools; council houses; motorways. We had a large Army, Navy and Air force. We could afford to subsidise British Coal, British Steel and British car makers. Since joining we apparently can no longer afford to do these things. It also appears that since joining this country has been taken over by Crooks and Crooked Accountants.Report
My vote is to leave, I am a small business and sell my products worlwide and found Europe very insular and the hardest to deal with. A few maybe frightend of the unknown, but we need to be in control of our country and destiny.Report
I believe we should leave the EU due to all the imigrationReport