22 April 2016
This appears to have been a relatively encouraging week for Remain in the polls. Of six polls published between Monday and Wednesday that had used the same polling method as in a previous survey, five identified at least a small shift in favour of Remain. In the event, the one that did not – by […]
15 April 2016
Four internet polls this week have suggested the referendum race – which today enters its fully regulated phase so far as campaign spending is concerned – continues to be very tight. Both YouGov (in one poll) and TNS put the two sides on 50% each (once Don’t Knows are left to one side) while with a 48% […]
8 April 2016
Although local and devolved elections taking place on May 5th might have been expected to compete for the limelight, the EU referendum is proving to be remarkably intensively polled. All in all, no less than 21 published polls of referendum vote intention were conducted wholly or partly in March, or more than one every other […]
30 March 2016
One of the striking features of polling of referendum vote intentions to date has been that polls conducted by phone have been producing more favourable results for Remain than those undertaken via the internet. Typically, once Don’t Knows are left to one side, the former have been suggesting that support for Remain is around the […]
15 March 2016
One of the most important features of polling in the EU referendum to date has been a marked and consistent divergence between those polls conducted by phone and those undertaken via the internet. The former have consistently suggested that Remain are well ahead; across all phone polls conducted since the beginning of this year Remain […]
29 February 2016
One key message from the opinion polls in advance of the conclusion of David Cameron’s renegotiation of the UK’s terms of membership was that if the Prime Minister came back from Brussels with what he insisted was a good deal for Britain, then the public would swing in behind a Remain vote. YouGov, for example, […]
26 February 2016
The EU Referendum race is hotting up. Last Friday evening, over an ‘English dinner’ in Brussels, David Cameron secured what he considered to be a successful renegotiation of Britain’s terms of membership of the European Union. But subsequently there has been considerable political division on the issue within Tory ranks, with a number of senior […]
23 February 2016
To date, the opinion polls have left us a very uncertain picture of the referendum race. Most phone polls suggest that Remain are well ahead, while nearly every internet poll reckons the two sides are more or less neck and neck. Meanwhile, relatively few polls have asked enough questions about people’s perceptions of the consequences […]
21 February 2016
David Cameron eventually secured (what he regarded as) a successful conclusion to his attempt to renegotiate aspects of Britain’s relationship with the EU over dinner in Brussels on Friday evening. Yesterday he gained approval for this deal from a majority of his cabinet and announced that the referendum will take place, as anticipated, on 23 […]
18 February 2016
Doubtless the Prime Minister will have had plenty to read on his journey to today’s vital European Council meeting in Brussels. Most of his reading material will, of course, have been about the stances of his fellow leaders on the outstanding issues in the renegotiation and how their concerns might be met. But maybe also […]
