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Is David Cameron Now Leader of the Opposition?

29 February 2016

One key message from the opinion polls in advance of the conclusion of David Cameron’s renegotiation of the UK’s terms of membership was that if the Prime Minister came back from Brussels with what he insisted was a good deal for Britain, then the public would swing in behind a Remain vote. YouGov, for example, […]


Did the ‘English Dinner’ Make Any Difference? First Evidence from Survation

21 February 2016

David Cameron eventually secured (what he regarded as) a successful conclusion to his attempt to renegotiate aspects of Britain’s relationship with the EU over dinner in Brussels on Friday evening. Yesterday he gained approval for this deal from a majority of his cabinet and announced that the referendum will take place, as anticipated, on 23 […]


Memo for the PM’s Journey to Brussels

18 February 2016

Doubtless the Prime Minister will have had plenty to read on his journey to today’s vital European Council meeting in Brussels. Most of his reading material will, of course, have been about the stances of his fellow leaders on the outstanding issues in the renegotiation and how their concerns might be met. But maybe also […]


First Post-Tusk Poll: Fine But Not Enough?

5 February 2016

Fine as far as it goes – but it does not go far enough. That seems to be the message from voters on the draft deal that Mr Cameron has negotiated with Donald Tusk, President of the European Council – at least if a poll from YouGov for today’s Times, the first to be conducted since the […]


What A Contrast! Phone Polls Put Remain Well Ahead

16 December 2015

The uncertainty surrounding just how close the referendum race really is has grown today with the publication of two further polls of referendum vote intention, one from ComRes for the Open Europe think tank, the other from Ipsos MORI for the Evening Standard. In contrast to the picture of a very tight race painted by […]


Poll Excitement Intensifies the Spotlight on the Renegotiations

16 December 2015

Two polls released yesterday helped create a flurry of excitement in advance of this week’s meeting of the European Council at which, we are promised, the renegotiation of Britain’s terms of membership will be on the agenda. One, from Survation, suggested that Leave were narrowly ahead (by 51% to 49%), while the other, from ICM, […]


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